NEPSE Crashes 36 Points as Rasuwa Flood Triggers Hydro Selloff

Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,558.35, down 35.92 points (‑1.38%) the largest single-day decline of this coverage period by a wide margin, and the lowest close of the entire stretch.

This one has a cause. Flooding struck the Timure area of Rasuwa on Wednesday morning, sweeping down the Bhotekoshi corridor and taking roughly 430 MW of generation capacity offline, 11 hydropower projects totalling around 405 MW, plus 25 MW of solar. NEA named the affected plants: Rasuwagadhi, Chilime, Trishuli-3 'A', Trishuli and Devighat, alongside the 220 kV substation at the Trishuli-3 'B' hub, the evacuation point connecting the region's generation to the national grid.

The market did not need to guess which stocks were exposed. It read the NEA list and hit them.

RHPL Rasuwagadhi Hydropower closed limit-down at ‑15.00%. It was simultaneously the day's worst loser, the day's highest-volume stock, and fifth by turnover. CHCL Chilime fell 10.12% and was the single largest turnover name on the exchange. Both companies were named directly in NEA's damage assessment.

Behind them: MKJC ‑14.99%, TVCL ‑12.95%, MMKJL ‑11.56%, SJCL ‑11.18%, SPHL ‑10.00% six hydropower names at or near circuit limits in one session.

Breadth collapsed to the worst reading imaginable: 23 advanced against 252 declined, 7 unchanged. An A/D ratio of 0.09. Eleven declines for every advance. The previous worst in this coverage was Monday's 0.21, itself a record. Today more than halved it.

Every sector on the board closed red. Hydropower fell 2.84%, its largest single-day loss of the coverage. Non-Life Insurance fell 3.90%, which is the second story of the day and gets its own section below.

And unlike every other decline in this fortnight, this one came with genuine volume. Turnover Rs 4.77 arab, up 16.1%. Volume 1.36 crore units, up 36% and the highest of the coverage. Transactions 61,442 also the highest of the coverage, beating Friday's 59,805.

Record participation, record-worst breadth, six circuits down. That is what capitulation actually looks like, and this report has spent two weeks noting its absence.

Index Snapshot

Turnover Rs 4.77 arab (+16.1% DoD)
Volume 1.36 crore units (+36%, highest of coverage)
Transactions 61,442 (highest of coverage)
Scripts traded 348
Advancers 23
Decliners 252
Unchanged 7

Sectoral Indices Performance

Hydropower at ‑2.84% is the sector's worst session of the coverage, and the index at 3,561.28 has now fallen 5.2% in four sessions from 3,750.98 on 20 August. The heatmap is close to uniform deep red beyond the circuit names, NHPC ‑3.40%, KKHC ‑2.59%, AKJCL ‑2.62%, MEHL ‑3.04%, SGHC ‑3.40%, SGHL ‑3.87%, AKPL ‑2.43%, MBJC ‑4.69%, AHPC ‑2.33%, HDHPC ‑2.06%, SOHL ‑2.22%, RIDI ‑2.53%, SHPC ‑2.92%. Only UHEWA (+10.43%) and PHCL (+0.44%) held green.

Non-Life Insurance at ‑3.90% was actually the worst sector on the board, and it is the flood's second-order trade. NICL ‑6.55%, PRIN ‑6.25%, NLG ‑4.98%, SGIC ‑4.79%, UAIL ‑4.52%, HEI ‑3.63%, IGI ‑3.36%, SALICO ‑3.22%, SICL ‑3.00%.

That is not sympathy selling, it is the market pricing claims exposure. Eleven hydropower projects offline, a 220 kV substation damaged, nine commercial bank branches damaged or swept away, and settlements destroyed along the Bhotekoshi. Whoever underwrote the property and business-interruption cover on that infrastructure has a loss event. The sector was sold accordingly.

Banking fell 0.77%, which is restrained given nine bank branches were damaged (see news section). KBL ‑0.70%, SANIMA ‑1.40%, NIMB ‑1.45%, NBL ‑1.13%, PRVU ‑0.94%, SBL ‑0.83%, GBIME ‑0.69%, SBI ‑1.24%. Banking has been the steadiest sector through this entire stretch and remained relatively so even today.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 0.09 by far the worst of the coverage period.

The full series: 0.32 → 0.51 → 0.99 → 0.70 → 1.66 → 0.67 → 0.35 → 0.32 → 0.79 → 1.01 → 0.36 → 0.21 → 0.42 → 0.09.

For context on how extreme 0.09 is: only 23 stocks out of 348 traded closed higher. On Monday, the previous record, 48 closed higher.

Technical scan as of 2:58 PM, two minutes before the close: 3,019 signals, 612 bullish (20.27%) against 1,258 bearish (41.67%).

Both are records. Bullish share at 20.27% is the lowest of the coverage, undercutting yesterday's 21.41%. Bearish share at 41.67% is the highest, exceeding 10 August's 41.80% band. The gap at 21.4 points is the widest recorded.

Total signals collapsed to 3,019 from 5,181 — a 41.7% drop, and the lowest count of the coverage. Note the pattern: Monday 3,306 → Tuesday 5,181 → today 3,019. The scan's signal count is now oscillating violently, which is itself characteristic of a market in disorder rather than one trending quietly.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Only ten names gained more than 0.96% on a 348-scrip board. Below this list, the market is essentially entirely red.

UHEWA at +10.43% is the day's genuine puzzle. Upper Hewakhola rose over 10% while its sector fell 2.84% and six of its peers went limit-down. It is the only large move on the board that runs directly counter to the flood trade either a name the market judged unaffected by the Bhotekoshi disruption, or a position being covered. Worth watching tomorrow.

SAPIL closed limit-up for a tenth consecutive session at 1,212.90. From its 345.00 debut: +252% in ten sessions with no red day. It has now more than tripled, on volumes in the low hundreds of units. On a day when the exchange had 23 advancers and six circuit-downs, this remains pure listing mechanics.

ECL rose 4.20% for a second consecutive gain (+5.71%, +4.20%) to 1,465.00 and KHPL rose 3.21% after +5.56% yesterday. Along with SAPIL these are the only names holding multi-session advances.

HATHY yesterday's last name standing is gone. After three consecutive gains it does not appear in today's top ten and closed within the Investment sector's ‑1.28%. That is failed breakout number thirteen.

Top Losers

Seven of the ten worst are hydropower, and six are at or beyond ‑10%.

RHPL (Rasuwagadhi) and CHCL (Chilime) are the two names NEA explicitly identified as damaged and they are the two that traded most heavily. RHPL closed limit-down at 205.20 while being the single highest-volume stock on the exchange. CHCL fell 10.12% to 427.00 as the largest turnover name. The market found the exposed names and cleared them in one session.

CREST at ‑10.85% is a full round trip in one day. It closed +14.95% yesterday at 1,253.00 essentially limit-up and today closed 1,117.00. Yesterday's report noted CREST's gain was itself a reversal of Monday's ‑4.39%. Three sessions, three directions.

SPHL at ‑10.00% had risen +6.27% Monday and +3.39% Tuesday, one of only two names with consecutive gains going into today. It gave back both and more in a single session.

NICL and PRIN lead the insurance selling at ‑6.55% and ‑6.25%, with the whole Non-Life complex down 3–6.5%.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Most active by volume: RHPL (205.20, ‑15.00%), CHCL (427.00, ‑10.12%), TAMOR (480.00, ‑0.08%), RIDI (343.00, ‑2.53%), NHPC (250.00, ‑3.40%), AKJCL (338.00, ‑2.62%), HDHPC (199.90, ‑2.06%), SOHL (663.90, ‑2.22%), SAHAS (681.90, ‑0.45%), SJCL (231.90, ‑11.18%).

All ten turnover leaders are hydropower. All ten closed red. Same for volume. There has not been a session in this coverage where a single sector occupied every slot in both tables.

MAKAR yesterday's block-accumulation story has vanished from both tables. It was the top name by volume and turnover on Tuesday at +4.80%, with Rs 7.45 crore across three of the day's five largest blocks. Today it does not appear in the top ten of either. Yesterday's report called it "the cleanest test on the board" and noted every prior block-driven move in this coverage had reversed within one to three sessions. It reversed in one.

RIDI made another new low at 343.00. The full arc: 386.00 → 377.00 → 375.00 → 371.00 → 367.90 → 361.60 → 359.60 → 364.80 → 359.90 → 357.00 → 351.90 → 343.00. Eleven declines in twelve sessions, down 11.1% across the stretch, and a top-five turnover name almost throughout.

Bulk/block activity — as of 2:59 PM, one minute before the close: Rs 4.30 arab across 55,328 blocks, average deal size Rs 77,685, down 12.5% from Tuesday's Rs 88,756. Largest single block: JBBL at Rs 3.31 crore, 11:08:56 AM. Top five totalled Rs 10.66 crore: JBBL (Rs 3.31 Cr), TAMOR (Rs 2.18 Cr), PCBLP (Rs 2.00 Cr), JBBL again (Rs 1.66 Cr), LBBL (Rs 1.52 Cr). Top five by quantity: PCBLP (190,286 and 117,834), PSF (100,000), SIGS3 (100,000), JBBL (100,000).

Note what is absent: not one hydropower name in the top five blocks, on a day hydropower took every slot in the turnover and volume tables. The large tickets went to Jyoti Bikas Bank, Prabhu Capital promoter shares and Lumbini Bikas development banks and promoter lines. Institutional size stepped entirely out of hydro while retail volume poured into it on the way down.

Previous Session Recap: Tuesday, 25 August

NEPSE fell 5.30 points (‑0.20%) to 2,594.27 on breadth of 78 up / 187 down (A/D 0.42). Turnover rose 26.9% to Rs 4.11 arab with the average block ticket up 45% to Rs 88,756 — size returning while transactions fell 12.3%. MAKAR was top by both volume and turnover at +4.80%, taking three of the five largest blocks (Rs 7.45 crore). DLBS completed a three-session round trip, and KKHC failed; HATHY held with a third consecutive gain. The technical scan hit its most bearish reading to that point at 21.41% bullish.

Coverage context: the fourteen sessions from 7 to 26 August: 2,650.08 → 2,641.06 → 2,641.85 → 2,642.40 → 2,651.21 → 2,643.83 → 2,641.82 → 2,622.48 → 2,622.22 → 2,629.40 → 2,618.72 → 2,599.58 → 2,594.27 → 2,558.35. Net ‑91.73 points, ‑3.46%, with more than a third of that decline arriving today.

Top Stories in Nepal

The flood dominates, and it is a market event, not just a news event.

• Flood hits hydropower: 430 MW offline. Flooding along the Bhotekoshi corridor has knocked out 11 hydropower projects totalling around 405 MW, plus 25 MW of solar. The 220 kV Trishuli 3B hub and associated transmission infrastructure were damaged critical because even undamaged plants cannot deliver power without evacuation capacity. The timing compounds it: monsoon is when Nepali hydro runs at peak generation, so 405 MW offline now is a larger revenue loss than the same outage in the dry season. Restoration timelines depend on substation and line repairs, not just plant repairs.

• Floods damage power infrastructure in Rasuwa. NEA named the affected facilities: Rasuwagadhi, Chilime and Trishuli-3 'A' hydropower projects, the 220 kV Trishuli-3 'B' Hub substation, plus the Trishuli and Devighat plants and local distribution lines. NEA has mobilised technical teams. This is the document the market traded off RHPL and CHCL are the listed names on that list and both were hit hardest.

• Rasuwa floods damage nine bank branches. Per Nepal Bankers' Association President Santosh Koirala, all nine commercial bank branches in the affected area are believed damaged; several were swept away. More than half the employees at those branches remain out of contact, with communications down. Banks with branches in the Timure area include Nabil, Prabhu, Global IME, Machhapuchchhre, Sanima, Laxmi Sunrise, Himalayan, NMB and Nepal Investment Mega. The NBA held an emergency meeting Wednesday morning and has requested Nepal Army and Nepal Police assistance in locating unreachable staff. Banking fell only 0.77%, the financial impact of nine branches is small relative to balance sheets, but the human situation is unresolved.

• Nepal Telecom services made free in four flood-hit districts to support rescue, relief and coordination.

• SEBON orders wide-ranging capital market reforms. Issued under Section 84(1) of the Securities Act 2063, implementing the Capital Market Development Roadmap 2083. Substantial and worth reading in full, the headline items:

  • NEPSE must conduct an IT audit and VAPT of its Trading Management System, and fix identified problems in NOTS.

  • AI-based order entry is suspended pending study of international practice and Nepal-specific requirements.

  • Mobile app trading to be facilitated, AMO effectiveness improved, C-KYC integrated with TMS.

  • New indices ordered: NEPSE 30 and NEPSE High Cap, plus free-float-based index calculation.

  • Auto EDIS via CDSC–TMS API integration; push notifications for IPOs, bonus, rights, settlements and demat debits; real-time reconciliation of DP holdings.

  • Brokers must strictly segregate client funds from own funds directly responsive to the Bhrikuti and Beni Securities failures plus dedicated grievance units reporting to SEBON within three working days monthly, and enforcement of T+2 fund delivery.

  • Promoters or major shareholders holding 5%+ must notify the company 15 days before selling, with the company disclosing via NEPSE. This is the single most consequential item for daily trading: the lock-in and promoter-sale events this report has tracked all fortnight would become visible in advance.

  • Merchant bankers: conflict-of-interest requirements and mandatory audit reports with IPO applications.

  • Mutual funds: must publish scheme documents, daily sales/repurchase, NAV and unit-holder counts.

• NIC Asia Debenture delisted from NEPSE 19,43,698 units of the 10.25% 2083/84 issue, ahead of Bhadra 10 maturity.

• Eastern Hydropower approved for a rights issue, 1:0.871 ratio, around Rs 540 million.

• ICRA Nepal reaffirms Mahalaxmi Bikas Bank at BB; yesterday it reaffirmed Him Parbat Hydropower at BB+.

• Muktinath Bikas Bank launches a 5.54% auto loan for NADA Auto Show 2026, the third bank in three sessions after Nepal Bank and Global IME (5.17%).

Corporate Actions & Events

What to Watch

The flood damage assessment is now the most important input to this market. NEA has mobilised technical teams and the full extent — how many of the 405 MW return, and how quickly depends on substation and transmission repairs as much as plant repairs. Today the market priced the worst case for the named plants in one session. The next move depends on whether the assessments come back better or worse than a 15% circuit-down implies. RHPL and CHCL are the two listed names on NEA's damage list; they are the ones to track.

Non-Life Insurance at ‑3.90% is the trade that has not fully played out. Eleven plants, a 220 kV substation, nine bank branches and destroyed settlements is a claims event of uncertain size. The sector was sold hard on day one with no loss estimate available. When actual claims figures emerge, that ‑3.90% will look either conservative or excessive but it will not stay unchanged.

This is the first genuine capitulation of the coverage. Six circuits down, A/D of 0.09, record volume at 1.36 crore units, record transaction count at 61,442. For two weeks this report has noted that declines were coming on falling volume without circuits orderly distribution, not capitulation, and therefore not finished. Today was the opposite in every respect. That does not guarantee a bottom, but it is the first session with the structural signature of one.

Institutional money left hydro entirely. Not one hydropower name in the top five blocks, on a day hydro filled every slot in both the turnover and volume tables. The large tickets went to JBBL, PCBLP and LBBL. Retail volume went into falling hydro; size went elsewhere. Watch whether blocks return to hydro names as damage assessments firm up that would be the first credible signal of a floor in the sector.

SEBON's 5%+ pre-sale disclosure rule changes how this market handles supply. Promoters and major shareholders must now notify 15 days before selling, with public disclosure via NEPSE. This report has spent a fortnight flagging BJHL and RNLI lock-in expiries that the market visibly failed to price. Under the new regime those events become visible in advance. It is the most consequential structural change in the package for day-to-day trading.

SAPIL at ten consecutive limit-ups, +252% from listing, on a day with 23 advancers and six circuit-downs. This is now a market-integrity question rather than a market story, and it arrives in the same session SEBON ordered a broad investor-protection package.

The scan is at record extremes in both directions. Bullish 20.27% (record low), bearish 41.67% (record high), gap 21.4 points (record wide), total signals 3,019 (record low, after a record high yesterday). Every reading is at a boundary. In a market that has just capitulated on record volume, extremes in sentiment measures are what you would expect near a low but they are equally consistent with a decline that has further to run.