NEPSE Falls Below 2,600 as Every Sector Turns Red

Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,599.58, down 19.13 points (‑0.73%). The index has closed below 2,600 for the first time in this entire coverage period, and it did so on the worst breadth yet recorded.

48 advanced against 230 declined, 4 unchanged, 350 scripts traded. An A/D ratio of 0.21 comfortably worse than the previous low of 0.32 set on 7 and 18 August. Nearly five declines for every advance.

Every single sector closed red. Not one exception, not even a two-stock index. Hotels & Tourism came closest to flat at ‑0.01%. That has not happened once in this fortnight even on 18 August's collapse, Trading held +0.41%.

Friday's report noted that breadth in this market had never held above parity for two consecutive sessions, and that every green day should be treated as a one-day event. Thursday printed 1.01. Friday printed 0.36. Today printed 0.21. The deterioration is now accelerating rather than oscillating.

Turnover is clean for a second consecutive session and it collapsed. Rs 3.24 arab, down 22.3% from Friday's Rs 4.17 arab. Transactions fell 11.1% to 53,153. Volume fell 14.3% to 85.73 lakh units from 1.00 crore.

No debenture placement, no block cluster: total block value was Rs 2.92 arab and the largest single block was EDBL at Rs 2.45 crore, printed at 2:59:06 PM in the closing seconds. The top five blocks totalled Rs 7.34 crore.

The average block deal size fell to Rs 61,058 a new low for the coverage period, down from Friday's Rs 69,099 and Thursday's Rs 91,092. Three consecutive sessions of shrinking ticket size.

So the sequence across the last three sessions reads: record participation on the worst clean turnover distribution (Friday), then a 22% drop in turnover with breadth deteriorating further (today). The heavy sellers finished on Friday. What is left is a thin market drifting lower on small tickets with almost no bid.

Index Snapshot

Turnover: Rs 3.24 arab (‑22.3% DoD)
Volume: 85.73 lakh units (‑14.3%)
Transactions: 53,153 (‑11.1%)
Scripts traded: 350
Advancers: 48
Decliners: 230
Unchanged: 4

All four indices fell between 0.68% and 0.74%, the tightest cluster of the coverage. Nothing outperformed. Sensitive at ‑0.68% held up marginally but with banking down 0.67% that is not meaningful differentiation.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Hydropower was the worst sector for a second consecutive session at ‑1.19%, its largest single-day decline of the coverage. The sector index has now fallen from 3,750.98 on Thursday to 3,681.44 down 1.85% in two sessions and sits below where it started this entire stretch.

The heatmap is close to uniform red: RIDI ‑0.81%, SOHL ‑1.03%, LEC ‑1.56%, TAMOR ‑1.38%, SAHAS ‑1.58%, GHL ‑1.30%, AKJCL ‑0.86%, API ‑1.19%, NHPC ‑1.58%, MEN ‑1.15%, SHEL ‑0.83%, SGHL ‑2.11%, MEPDL ‑7.76%, SHPC ‑2.47%, PHCL ‑1.60%, UHEWA ‑1.20%, BHL ‑0.97%, NGPL ‑0.93%, HDHPC ‑1.11%. The green is limited to KKHC (+3.33%), PPCL (+0.58%), MEHL (+0.41%) and BHCL (+0.22%).

Non-Life Insurance was second-worst at ‑1.12%, with PURE ‑3.48%, SPIL ‑1.98%, TTL ‑1.13%, PRIN ‑1.08%, MKCL ‑2.72%. Only NRM (+0.30%) and NLG held up.

Banking fell 0.67%, ending a three-session run of flat-to-positive closes. CZBIL ‑2.28%, EBL ‑1.48%, PRVU ‑1.04%, NICA ‑0.96%, LSL ‑0.91%, NIMB ‑0.80%, KBL ‑0.70%, GBIME ‑0.69%, NBL ‑0.65%, NABIL ‑0.64%, PCBL ‑0.54%. ADBL (+0.50%) and SBI were the only names not falling. The relative strength banks showed on Friday essentially flat against an A/D of 0.36 did not survive the weekend.

Development Bank at ‑0.47% has one bright spot: EDBL rose 1.04%, and it was the day's largest block (Rs 2.45 crore) plus another at Rs 1.17 crore. Against CORBL ‑3.09%, KSBBL ‑0.84%, GBBL ‑0.40%.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 0.21 — the worst reading of the entire coverage period.

The full series: 0.32 → 0.51 → 0.99 → 0.70 → 1.66 → 0.67 → 0.35 → 0.32 → 0.79 → 1.01 → 0.36 → 0.21.

Twelve sessions. Two above parity, both immediately reversed. The floor of the range has now moved lower, the previous worst was 0.32, hit twice; today is a third lower.

Technical scan: 3,306 signals, 749 bullish (22.66%) against 1,289 bearish (38.99%).

Two things stand out. The bull/bear percentages barely moved bullish up marginally from 22.27%, bearish up from 37.99%, gap widening slightly to 16.3 points from 15.7. Bullish share has now spent five consecutive sessions locked between 21.6% and 22.7%.

But total signals collapsed to 3,306 from 4,715, a 29.9% drop and by far the lowest count of the coverage which has otherwise run between 4,400 and 4,900. Fewer indicator triggers across the whole exchange means fewer stocks are doing anything technically significant in either direction. That is a quantitative measure of the market going quiet and it lines up exactly with the 22% turnover decline and the shrinking ticket size.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Only ten names on a 350-scrip board gained more than 1.8%. Below the top ten, the board is essentially all red.

SAPIL closed limit-up for an eighth consecutive session, at 917.20. The run from its 345.00 debut: 396.70 → 456.20 → 524.60 → 603.20 → 693.60 → 797.60 → 917.20. That is +166% in eight sessions on daily volumes in the low hundreds of units. It is now the highest-priced Manufacturing name on the board and remains pure listing mechanics.

DLBS is the reversal of the week, and it cuts against everything. It was Friday's worst loser at ‑5.26% (1,027.00). Today it is the second-best gainer at +11.98% (1,150.00). A 12% move in the opposite direction inside one session, in a microfinance name, on a day when the broad market had an A/D of 0.21.

Microfinance supplied four of the top ten gainers: DLBS, CYCL, ALBSL and SWASTIK while the sector index still fell 0.53% with MLBBL ‑4.72%, FMDBL ‑1.06%, SLBBL, SKBBL and NMLBBL all red. That is the widest internal dispersion of any sector today: violent moves in both directions.

KKHC finally closed green. After five consecutive declines totalling ‑23.4% from its 14 August spike, it rose 3.33% to 278.90 and was third by volume. Friday's report called it "the clearest short-side tell on the board." The bleeding has stopped whether that is a base or exhaustion is the open question.

HATHY rose 3.33% for a second consecutive gain (+4.99% Friday), and is the only Investment name up on a day the sector fell 0.41%.

Top Losers

PMHPL and RHGCL are Friday's gainers, reversed. PMHPL was Friday's second-best at +13.86% (345.90); today it is the worst loser at ‑9.83% (311.90). RHGCL was Friday's third-best at +5.51% (268.00); today ‑4.89% (254.90).

Two of Friday's top three gainers are today's top five losers. That is the reversal pattern this report has documented for twelve sessions, now compressed to a 24-hour cycle.

MEPDL is in free-fall. After six consecutive limit-ups it fell 2.96% Friday and 7.76% today to 713.90 and it was seventh by turnover, so the volume is real. From its 797.60 peak on Thursday it is down 10.5% in two sessions. Both new listings peaked together; SAPIL is still circuiting up while MEPDL has broken hard.

SHPC, the eleventh breakout candidate failed. Friday's report named it the only name on the exchange that had extended a Thursday gain (+4.05%, then +2.92%) and said it was the sole candidate to break the pattern. It fell 2.47% to 514.20 today.

That is now eleven consecutive failed breakouts across twelve sessions. Investment's sector surge, GHL, SKHL, ULHC, CORBL, UHEWA, KKHC, RSML, MEHL, BHCL and now SHPC. There is still no name on this exchange holding a multi-session gain with the sole exception of SAPIL, which is a listing artifact trading on a few hundred units a day.

ECL fell 5.01% to 1,330.00, its lowest of the coverage. Its arc across the fortnight: 1,665 → 1,584 → 1,529.90 → 1,575 → 1,400.10 → 1,330.00. Down 20.1% from its post-listing peak.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Most active by volume: RIDI (357.00, ‑0.81%), SOHL (678.90, ‑1.03%), KKHC (278.90, +3.33%), LEC (213.90, ‑1.56%), AKJCL (345.90, ‑0.86%), SAHAS (684.00, ‑1.58%), TAMOR (478.00, ‑1.38%), BHL (205.00, ‑0.97%), API (331.00, ‑1.19%), GHL (228.00, ‑1.30%).

Nine of the ten turnover leaders closed red. Nine of the ten volume leaders closed red. Only EDBL and KKHC held up, and EDBL's gain is explained by the day's two largest blocks.

RSML has now fallen three consecutive sessions: ‑0.32% → ‑1.69%, closing 2,728.00. It peaked at 2,841.60 on Monday 17 August on Rs 31.53 crore of block trades, recovered to 2,784.00 on genuine volume Thursday and has given it all back. It remains the top turnover name on the exchange, money keeps going in and the price keeps going down.

SOHL fell a third straight session to 678.90. It is now below the 682.10 level it started this sequence at, having bounced to 699.00 on Thursday.

RIDI made another new low at 357.00. Its arc across the fortnight: 386.00 → 377.00 → 375.00 → 371.00 → 367.90 → 361.60 → 359.60 → 364.80 → 359.90 → 357.00. Nine declines in ten sessions.

SAHAS has fully unwound. It was the cleanest accumulation print on the board on Wednesday 19 August (closed one rupee off the high on Rs 17.53 crore); it is now 684.00, below its 701.00 close that day.

Bulk/block activity: Rs 2.92 arab across 47,825 blocks, average deal size Rs 61,058, the lowest of the coverage period, down 11.6% from Friday. Largest single block: EDBL at Rs 2.45 crore at 2:59:06 PM, in the final seconds of trading. Top five totalled Rs 7.34 crore: EDBL (Rs 2.45 Cr), SHPC (Rs 2.01 Cr), EDBL again (Rs 1.17 Cr), PPCL (Rs 86.75 lakh) and PPCL again (Rs 84.01 lakh). Top five by quantity: RSY2 (245,230), RBBF40 (206,000), EDBL (42,016), SHPC (39,120), SIGS3 (27,000).

Note the SHPC block at Rs 2.01 crore on a day the stock fell 2.47% someone sizeable moved a position in a name that had been the market's last surviving uptrend.

Previous Session Recap: Friday, 21 August

NEPSE fell 10.67 points (‑0.40%) to 2,618.72, with breadth collapsing to 72 up / 199 down (A/D 0.36) from Thursday's 1.01. It happened on the heaviest participation of the coverage 59,805 transactions, the highest count recorded with clean turnover of Rs 4.17 arab, the largest genuine equity figure of the stretch. The average block ticket fell to Rs 69,099. BHCL, the last standing breakout, broke at ‑3.38%, making it the tenth consecutive failure. Every sector closed red except Mutual Fund at +0.03%.

Two-week context: the twelve sessions from 7 to 24 August: 2,650.08 → 2,641.06 → 2,641.85 → 2,642.40 → 2,651.21 → 2,643.83 → 2,641.82 → 2,622.48 → 2,622.22 → 2,629.40 → 2,618.72 → 2,599.58. Net ‑50.50 points, ‑1.91%. Turnover across the same window: 3.77 → 3.67 → 4.11 → 3.53 → 3.72 → 3.57 → clean-adjusted 3.89 → 4.17 → 3.24 arab.

Top Stories in Nepal

• Bank CEOs can become NRB Governor after a two-year cooling-off period. A governance change with real implications for the banking sector's relationship with its regulator. It arrives in a week where NRB is already withdrawing Rs 85 billion from BFIs, and where banks have committed roughly Rs 115 billion to Tila-1 and Tila-2 hydropower financing against an offtaker (NEA) that just reported a 43% profit decline. The regulatory-industry interface is the live question across all three items.

• Finance Minister Wagle to visit India. Bilateral economic discussions matter for a market where power export arrangements underpin the hydropower sector's long-term earnings case and hydropower has been the worst-performing sector two sessions running and takes roughly half of daily turnover.

• NRN Association and Nepal Chamber sign an investment MoU. Non-resident Nepali capital has been a recurring policy theme; note that NRN (the listed Investment-sector company) fell 0.84% today, unrelated.

• Nepal Bank offers special auto loans for the NADA Auto Show which runs Bhadra 9–14.

• Nepal imports Rs 13.4 billion in cosmetics, a trade-balance datapoint rather than a market one.

Corporate Actions & Events

RNLI fell 0.89% today, its fourth consecutive session of movement after a week of being inert. The Shrawan 30 lock-in release is now days away and the stock has drifted lower across three of those four sessions, the market has finally started pricing the supply, later than this report flagged it should have.

What to Watch

2,599.58 is the first sub-2,600 close of this coverage period, and there is no tested support beneath it. The 2,608–2,610 zone that held twice last week broke today. The next reference points are round numbers, not levels this market has defended. On the upside, 2,618.72 is Friday's close and the broken 2,629–2,633 floor is now nearly 30 points overhead.

A/D of 0.21 with every sector red is a capitulation reading on non-capitulation volume. There were no circuits. Turnover fell 22%. That combination, extreme breadth deterioration without a volume spike or forced selling usually means the decline is not finished. Genuine capitulation shows up as heavy volume and circuit-level moves; this was quiet, orderly, and universal.

Total technical signals collapsed 30% to 3,306. Fewer stocks are triggering indicators in either direction than at any point in this coverage. Combined with turnover down 22%, transactions down 11% and the smallest average block ticket yet recorded, the market is not selling off violently, it is emptying out. Watch whether signal count recovers above 4,000; if it stays near 3,300, participation has structurally thinned rather than paused.

Eleven consecutive failed breakouts, and SHPC was number eleven. There is now genuinely nothing on this board holding a multi-session gain except SAPIL, which trades a few hundred units a day. KKHC (+3.33% after five declines), HATHY (two consecutive gains) and DLBS (+11.98% after being Friday's worst loser) are the three candidates for attempt number twelve. On the record of the past fortnight, the base case is that all three fail within two sessions.

Microfinance is where the volatility has migrated. Four of the top ten gainers and three of the top ten losers, with DLBS +11.98%, CYCL +9.14%, WNLB ‑8.67% and MLBBL ‑4.72% and the sector index still down 0.53%. That internal dispersion, on a day when hydropower moved in near-lockstep, suggests position unwinding rather than a directional view.

Hydropower two sessions at the bottom of the table, down 1.85%. The sector is now below where it started this stretch, in the same week the government moved on a new PPA process, NEA reported a 43% profit fall, and banks committed Rs 115 billion of project lending. The tape and the fundamentals have converged, and neither is encouraging.

Banks broke their three-session hold. ‑0.67%, with only ADBL up. The one part of the market showing relative strength through last week gave it up on the first session of this one. Given banking's index weight, and the NRB's Rs 85 billion liquidity withdrawal now in motion, this is the sector to watch for any stabilisation signal.