Hydropower carries half the turnover; Thursday's top gainer becomes Friday's worst loser

Markets Today

NEPSE opened at 2,652.91, a shade below Thursday's 2,654.15 close, and never found a bid strong enough to change the tone. The index poked at 2,657.44 in the first leg, then drifted through the morning to a low of 2,641.93 before stabilising around the 2,650 line, a level it has now been pinned to for two straight sessions.

What the headline number hides is how one-sided the tape is. The index is down only 4.05 points (‑0.15%), but 210 scripts are red against 68 green. That gap between a flat index and a broken breadth reading is the story: a handful of heavier counters are holding the number up while the broader market bleeds. Thursday looked the same in reverse: 202 losers, 64 gainers, index down 13.82.

Turnover tells the second half of it. At Rs 3.77 arab, activity is running about 17% below Thursday's Rs 4.62 arab, and transaction count is down 21%. Volume is flat-to-slightly-higher, which means the average trade is smaller. Retail is churning; size is sitting out.

The clearest single-name lesson: Upper Lohore Khola (ULHC) was Thursday's top gainer at +15%. Today it is the worst loser at ‑11.10%, on Rs 2.76 crore of turnover.

Index Snapshot

Turnover Rs 3.77 arab (‑17.44% DoD) · Volume 1.03 crore units (+1.98%) · Transactions 46,900 (‑21.09%)

The Sensitive index underperforming NEPSE by 10bps says large caps are not the ones providing the support.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Two things stand out. Manufacturing & Processing has bounced +0.25% after being Thursday's worst sector (‑93.04 points) a technical recovery, not a re-rating. And Hydropower is absorbing 52.9% of all turnover while moving ‑0.13%. That much money producing that little price movement is distribution, not accumulation.

Finance is the weakest sector at ‑0.70%, on turnover down 65% day-on-day — falling on thin volume, which is a lower-conviction decline than it looks.

Market Breadth

Advance/decline ratio of 0.32 roughly one gainer for every three losers. No circuits either way, so there is no panic; this is steady, orderly selling.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Four of the top ten are mutual fund units (MMF1, HLICF, NICSF, RSY) — closed-end funds trading on NAV discounts, not an equity signal. ECL (Everest Colour) continues its post-listing run with 627 transactions, the highest transaction count on the board.

Top Losers

ULHC and MKHC are both hydropower — the sector taking half the market's turnover is also supplying the two biggest declines. ANLB at ‑3.78% traded a 5,300–5,834 range intraday, a 10% swing on a five-thousand-rupee counter.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

These per-script figures come from the intraday live feed and lag the aggregate turnover print above; treat them as ranking, not levels.

RIDI was Thursday's turnover leader at Rs 47.24 crore and remains in the top three today — sustained two-day interest, though the price is drifting.

Most transacted: ECL (627), SGHL (446), SOHL (400), TPKHL (292), KAHL (286). High transaction counts on mid-priced hydropower names is a retail footprint.

Previous Session Recap: Thursday, 6 August

NEPSE fell 13.82 points to 2,654.15. The market opened at 2,667.97 and hit its high of 2,676.40 inside the first two minutes, then sold off for the rest of the session, bottoming at 2,648.28 in the final eight minutes. Twelve of thirteen sectors closed red; Trading was the sole gainer at +20 points, while Manufacturing & Processing shed 93.04 points. Turnover was Rs 4.62 arab. Breadth was 64 up, 202 down, 10 unchanged.

Weekly context: for the week of 27–31 July, NEPSE fell 49.06 points (‑1.79%) to 2,685.54, with turnover of Rs 21.67 arab — down 23.5% week-on-week. Market capitalisation contracted to about Rs 4.62 trillion. The index has now given up roughly another 35 points on top of that.

Top Stories in Nepal

SEBON signals short selling. Following investor pressure on the regulator earlier in the week, the SEBON chair indicated the market may get a short-selling mechanism — structurally significant for a market that has only ever had one direction available to it. Implementation timeline remains unstated.

Parliamentary share-trading ban proposed. The Speaker has introduced a proposal to bar share trading during parliamentary sessions, targeting conflict-of-interest concerns among sitting members.

Listings. IPO shares of Everest Colour Limited, 50% right shares of Himalayan Power Partner, 100% right shares of Buddha Bhumi Nepal Hydropower, and bonus shares of Nepal Hydro Developers and Kutheli Bukhari Small Hydropower have all been listed on NEPSE. Fresh supply is arriving into a market with falling turnover — a headwind for absorption.

Support Laghubitta Q4: net profit up 181% to Rs 7.61 crore, EPS Rs 56.82.

IPO pipeline: Himal Dental Hospital appointed Muktinath Capital as issue manager; Janata Agro appointed Siddhartha Capital; Jyoti Capital named underwriter for KBNR Isuwa Power. Makalu Wine Industries has called an SGM to discuss an IPO.

Samudayik Laghubitta appointed NMB Capital as share registrar.

Corporate Actions & Events

Two lock-in expiries inside the next few sessions add supply into an already thin bid.

What to Watch

• 2,641.93 is today's low and the nearest intraday support. 2,676.40 Thursday's high is the level that has to break for the downtrend to be questioned.

• Hydropower's turnover dominance (52.9%) with a flat sector index is the single most important tell on this tape. Watch whether that share falls next week; rotation out of hydro without a receiving sector would drag the index.

• Turnover trend: 4.62 arab → 3.77 arab. A third consecutive decline would confirm participation is drying up rather than merely pausing.