Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,641.85, up 0.79 points (+0.03%), ending three straight sessions of decline. The number is trivial. Everything about how it got there is not.

The index gapped down to 2,629.77 in the opening minutes, taking out Monday's 2,636.29 low immediately. It rallied 26.45 points to 2,656.22 through the middle session, faded through the afternoon, and then the closing cross fired. Trade counts went from a few hundred a minute to nearly 5,000 in the final minute, and that single window turned a red tape green.

This is the day's actual structure and it deserves stating plainly: with a minute left, the index was down about two points, breadth was roughly 130 up against 185 down, and hydropower was negative. The close put NEPSE up 0.79, breadth at 156 up against 157 down, and hydropower positive. A market that was losing all afternoon was rescued by the auction.

Breadth ended dead even: 156 advanced, 157 declined, 27 unchanged, 340 scripts traded. An advance/decline of 0.99 against 0.51 on Monday and 0.54 on Friday. That is the first non-negative breadth reading in over a week.

(Nepalytix's live panel shows 134 / 122 / 24, which sums to 280 against 340 scripts traded, it covers a subset of the universe. The 156 / 157 / 27 figures reconcile to the full traded count.)

Two circuits, one each way, the first in three sessions.

Upper Lohore Khola (ULHC) closed limit-up at 436.60, +14.99%, after trading as low as 353.60. That is a 23.5% move off the intraday low into the close, on Rs 2.75 crore and 283 transactions. Yesterday it fell 3.87%; Monday it was flat; Friday it fell 6.93%. Today it went limit-up.

Mahila Laghubitta (MLBSL) closed limit-down at 1,370.00, ‑14.91%, opening at its 1,560.00 high and selling all day on Rs 4.14 crore and 879 transactions.

Turnover was Rs 4.11 arab, up 11.9%, the first meaningful increase in four sessions. But volume fell 13.1% to 95.34 lakh units and transactions fell 2.7% to 52,073. The average trade rose from Rs 68,650 to Rs 78,946, a 15.0% jump that precisely reverses Monday's 14.7% fall. Fewer, larger tickets.

Market capitalisation edged up to Rs 4.54 trillion.

Index Snapshot

Turnover Rs 4.11 arab (+11.88% DoD) · Volume 95.34 lakh units (‑13.06%) · Transactions 52,073 (‑2.71%) · Scripts traded 340 · Avg ticket Rs 78,946 (+15.00%) · Market cap Rs 4.54 trillion

The open and the low are the same print, 2,629.79 and 2,629.77. When those coincide, the selling was overnight positioning rather than intraday conviction — and the 26-point rally that followed confirms bids were sitting below 2,630.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Six sectors green, seven red, the most balanced sectoral tape in a week. Sector turnover accounts for 95.3% of the market total; the rest is debentures, promoter shares and bonds outside the sub-indices.

Monday's key call resolved, and it resolved well. Monday's report flagged that not one of 22 commercial banks closed higher. Today 13 of 20 advanced against 5 declines and Banking finished +0.32%, the second-best sector. It came on Rs 34.21 crore, barely changed from Monday's Rs 33.49 crore, so banks stopped falling without yet attracting fresh money. Stabilisation, not accumulation.

Hydropower took 55.2% of all turnover for a +0.05% move. Third consecutive session above half the market. But the internals finally turned: 58 hydro names advanced against 47 declines, after Monday's 33 up / 72 down. The sector is no longer being carried by two stocks which matters, because those two stocks fell today.

Microfinance is the reversal. Monday's best sector (+0.19%, breadth 23/24) is today's second-worst (‑0.36%, breadth 18/27), and it produced the day's negative circuit.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 0.99. Median move across the board: 0.00%. Twenty-four scripts gained more than 2%; eighteen fell more than 2%. That is the first session in over a week where the big winners outnumbered the big losers.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Excluded as non-signal: RBBD2088 (+5.92% on 52 units, 3 trades), LUK (+5.27%), SEF (+3.54%), SCBD (+3.00% on a single trade), PBD85 (+3.00% on 1 trade), SFMF (+2.90%). Debentures and fund units that top the raw list on negligible volume.

Eight of the ten are hydropower.

ULHC is the print of the day. Opened 365.00, sank to 353.60, closed at the 436.60 limit. A stock that had fallen 6.93% Friday and 3.87% Monday put on 15% and took out four sessions of losses in one. On Rs 2.75 crore across 283 transactions: real participation, not a thin ramp.

UHEWA is the only clean multi-day trend on this board. Upper Hewakhola: +4.47% Monday, +3.60% today, with turnover going Rs 2.58 crore → Rs 10.52 crore. Two up days, quadrupled turnover, no give-back. In a market where every winner has reversed within 24 hours, that is the exception worth watching.

NGPL came from Rs 2.68 crore Monday to Rs 17.87 crore today at +3.06%, third by turnover from nowhere. Fresh money entering a hydro name outside the crowded SOHL/RIDI trade.

Top Losers

Excluded as non-signal: PBD88 (‑4.17% on 100 units), NSY, H8020, EBLD86, HLICF, NICGF2, NIFRAUR85/86.

MLBSL is genuine forced selling. Rs 4.14 crore across 29,670 units and 879 transactions, opening at the day's high of 1,560 and closing at the lower limit. The volume and transaction count rule out a thin print.

ECL is now down three straight: 1,665 → 1,584 → 1,529.90. Off 8.1% in two sessions, with 1,627 transactions today, the second-highest count on the board. The post-listing run has fully unwound and the participation on the way down is heavier than on the way up.

The reversal trade, revisited. Monday's top gainers gave most of it back, but far less violently than the intraday tape suggested:

Note FMDBL: it was down 3.65% with a minute to go and closed ‑0.77%. The closing cross rescued that one too.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Top ten = 40.4% of market turnover; top twenty = 52.7%. Marginally higher than Monday's 38.8% / 52.5%. Concentration is not easing.

SOHL and RIDI both fell while taking 19.1% of the market between them. Rs 78.56 crore of turnover to produce ‑2.25% and ‑2.33%. Monday's report said if either rolled over the hydro index would go negative both did and the sector still finished green because the rest of the sector finally showed up: 58 hydro names advanced. That is the single most encouraging structural change on this tape.

Most transacted: SOHL (2,908), SGHL (2,669), ECL (1,627), KAHL (1,610), NGPL (1,178), SOPL (1,151), RIDI (1,061), UHEWA (992), MLBSL (879).

SGHL is again the small-ticket extreme: 2,669 transactions for Rs 4.40 crore, an average ticket of about Rs 16,500. SOHL's average ticket is Rs 154,000 nine times larger. Those two names are trading in different markets.

Bulk/block activity: the largest single transaction of the day was Rs 2.10 crore in SOHL at 12:05:38. The five largest blocks totalled Rs 8.37 crore across SOHL, RIDI and UHEWA, the same three names dominating the regular tape. KDBY led block quantity with repeated 55,000-unit deals.

Previous Session Recap: Monday, 10 August

NEPSE closed at 2,641.06, down 9.02 points (‑0.34%), the third consecutive decline, closing 4.77 points off the day's low of 2,636.29 and breaking Friday's 2,641.93 support. Turnover Rs 3.67 arab across 53,524 transactions and 1.10 crore units; 352 scripts traded, 112 advanced, 220 declined.

None of 22 traded commercial banks closed higher. Hydropower took 48.0% of turnover on a +0.07% index move while 72 of 110 hydro names fell. ANLB was the worst genuine loser at ‑8.87% after being Friday's top gainer at +8.60%; CORBL led gainers at +8.47%.

Weekly context: NEPSE fell 35 points over the week to 7 August, weekly turnover Rs 21.45 arab (‑1.02% WoW), market capitalisation down 1.52% to about Rs 4.55 trillion. Across Monday and Tuesday the index has given up a net 8.23 points.

Top Stories in Nepal

• NPTC receives approval to trade 100 MW of electricity. Direct read-through to the hydropower complex, which is taking more than half of all market turnover.

• Investor proposes 15 reforms to strengthen Nepal's capital market. Adds to an already crowded reform agenda alongside SEBON's primary-market task force and the short-selling signal.

• NRB flags rising security risks in Nepal's digital payments.

• Transport entrepreneurs seek EV import duty concessions.

Corporate Actions & Events

BJHL closed +1.64% today after falling 3.46% on Monday, the market front-ran its own supply and unwound within two sessions. RNLI (‑0.26%) is the next dated expiry and is still not being priced.

What to Watch

2,629.77 held on its first test. The index opened there, bounced 26 points, and closed 12 points above it. That is the first level in a week to produce a genuine buying response. Above, 2,656.22 is today's high and 2,676.40 remains the level that has to break to end the downtrend.

How much of today was the auction? A market that was down two points with a minute left closed up 0.79 on a 5,000-trade closing cross. That is a real bid, but it is a bid that arrived in one window rather than across the session. If tomorrow's strength shows up in the first two hours instead of the last two minutes, the turn is genuine. If the index spends another day red and only closes green, this is positioning, not demand.

Hydropower breadth flipped: 58 up, 47 down. Third straight session above half the market's turnover, but the first where the sector paid without SOHL and RIDI doing the work both fell and it still finished green. Watch whether NGPL and UHEWA keep drawing money; that would confirm the rotation is broadening within hydro rather than concentrating further.

Banks: 13 of 20 green after Monday's zero. But turnover was flat at Rs 34.21 crore. Banks have stopped selling; they have not started buying. A second green session on rising bank turnover is what turns this into a floor.

Microfinance after the MLBSL circuit. Best sector Monday, second-worst today, 27 of 49 names down, one limit-down print with 879 transactions behind it. A second microfinance circuit tomorrow makes this a sector unwind rather than one position.

Turnover trend: 4.62 → 3.77 → 3.67 → 4.11 arab. First increase in four sessions, and a real one. But it came with 13% lower volume and 3% fewer transactions, value up on lower participation means it was driven by ticket size, not by more people showing up. Watch for turnover above 4 arab with transactions back over 53,000.

All figures are settled 15:00 close data for 11 August 2026, cross-checked against the Nepalytix live market terminal. An earlier version of this report used a 14:59:32 snapshot taken before the closing cross and materially misstated the day, including reporting ULHC as a 3.87% decliner when it closed limit-up at +14.99%.