Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,642.40, up 0.55 points (+0.02%) a second consecutive gain and the second in a row that rounds to nothing. Three sessions now inside a 13-point band around 2,641.

Under it, the tape was worse than yesterday. The index opened at 2,641.27, sold to 2,629.22 by mid-morning 55 paisa below Tuesday's low of 2,629.77 then rallied to 2,648.57 and gave back six points into the close. Breadth deteriorated from Tuesday's even split to 137 advanced against 195 declined, 14 unchanged, 348 scripts traded. A/D of 0.70, back to Monday's level.

ULHC did the exact opposite of yesterday. Upper Lohore Khola closed limit-down at 371.20, ‑14.98%, opening at its 425.00 high and never trading higher. Yesterday it closed limit-up at 436.60, +14.99%, after trading as low as 353.60. Two sessions, both limits, opposite directions, on 283 and then 322 transactions. That is the reversal pattern this tape has been running all week compressed into its purest form and it now has real participation behind it in both directions.

Turnover fell hard: Rs 3.53 arab, down 14.1%. Transactions fell 15.5% to 43,990, the lowest count in a week and volume fell 8.7% to 87.02 lakh units. The average ticket held at Rs 80,293, up 1.7%. Fewer people, same size. Tuesday's Rs 4.11 arab now looks like what it was: the closing auction, not a return of participation.

The rotation is the real story. Hydropower's turnover share collapsed from 55.2% to 42.0%, its lowest in four sessions and the sector fell 0.40% with 76 of 111 names down. Meanwhile Investment, a sector of eight stocks, took 12.1% of the entire market's turnover and closed +2.21%, the best sector by a wide margin. Money left hydro and this time something received it.

Sensitive (+0.30%) and Sensitive Float (+0.31%) both outperformed NEPSE for a second straight session. Large caps are now leading, not dragging.

Index Snapshot

Turnover Rs 3.53 arab (‑14.06% DoD) · Volume 87.02 lakh units (‑8.73%) · Transactions 43,990 (‑15.52%) · Scripts traded 348 · Avg ticket Rs 80,293 (+1.71%) · Market cap Rs 4.54 trillion

Listed companies rose from 435 to 437, Mount Everest Power (MEPDL) began trading today.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Investment is the single most important line on this tape. Eight traded stocks absorbed Rs 42.71 crore, 12.1% of the market and the sub-index rose 2.21%, four times the next-best sector. NRN alone did Rs 31.60 crore at +3.85% which is 8.95% of the entire market's turnover in one name. HIDCL (+4.95%), CHDC (+2.85%) and NIFRA (+3.44%) filled in behind it. Six of eight up, two down.

For a week this report has said money was leaving hydropower without being received anywhere. Today it was received. Whether an eight-stock sector can hold Rs 42 crore a day is the open question.

Hydropower's internals collapsed even as its share fell. Breadth went 58 up / 47 down on Tuesday to 31 up / 76 down today. Tuesday's improvement lasted exactly one session. The sector is back to where it was on Monday but now with a third less money in it which is arguably healthier, since the distribution pattern (half the turnover, no price) has finally broken.

Manufacturing & Processing was the worst sector at ‑0.71%, dragged by RSML (‑2.89% on Rs 6.19 crore) despite ECL bouncing +2.95%.

Banking was flat (+0.05%) on 9 up / 10 down after Tuesday's 13/5. The bank bid this report flagged on Tuesday did not extend.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 0.70, down from Tuesday's 0.99. Seventeen scripts gained more than 2%, thirty fell more than 2%, the winner/loser ratio at the extremes flipped back to negative after one session of balance. Median move ‑0.18%.

Technical scan context: across the exchange, 4,595 indicator signals fired today 1,160 bullish (25.24%) against 1,857 bearish (40.41%). Tuesday's readings were 4,416 signals, 24.86% bullish and 41.80% bearish. Marginal improvement in the bull/bear mix, more signals overall. Neither reading is anywhere near a turn; bearish signals have outnumbered bullish by roughly 1.6:1 for two sessions.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Excluded: MEPDL, which shows +15.00% at 345.00 but has no previous close, Mount Everest Power listed today and the move is measured against a reference price on 150 units. Not a gainer. Also excluded as non-signal: SLCF (+4.18%), H8020 (+3.43% on 600 units), CSY, NSY.

Five of the top ten are Investment or Finance names. ENL, HIDCL, NRN, NIFRA and CHDC are all Investment; MFIL is Finance. For the first time in a week, hydropower does not dominate the winners' board KKHC (+2.05%) is the only hydro name in the top sixteen.

NRN is where the money went. Rs 31.60 crore across 921 transactions, up 3.85%, trading 1,350.00–1,435.00 and closing near the high. It also crossed above its 20-day VWAP intraday. That is the largest single-name turnover on the board and it came from outside the hydro complex entirely.

HIDCL is the cleanest technical setup on the tape: +4.95%, crossed above both its 20-day VWAP and its 50-day EMA, RSI crossed above 50 (61.54 from 39.13). NIFRA did the same — above VWAP, above EMA-50, MACD bullish crossover, RSI 59.99 from 36.09. Two large infrastructure names turning together on real turnover.

ECL finally bounced. Everest Colour rose 2.95% to 1,575.00 after three straight declines (1,665 → 1,584 → 1,529.90), on 1,543 transactions, third-highest count on the board. It traded 1,485.30–1,600.00, a 7.7% range.

Top Losers

Excluded as non-signal: ICFCD83 (‑15.00% on 42 units, 9 trades a debenture circuit), PBLD86 (4 units), LBLD86 (3 units), NCCD86 (3 units), KBLD89, LUK, NIMBD90 (single trade), HEIP (10 units), GWFD83 (11 units). Nine of the sixteen raw losers are debentures on negligible volume.

ULHC opened at the high and closed at the limit. 425.00 down to 371.20, no bounce, 322 transactions and 45,339 units. Combined with yesterday's limit-up, the two-day round trip is: 379.70 → 436.60 → 371.20. Anyone who bought Tuesday's close is down 15% in a session.

UHEWA broke. This report called Upper Hewakhola "the only clean multi-day trend on this board" on Tuesday, after +4.47% Monday and +3.60% Tuesday on quadrupling turnover. Today it fell 3.16%, opened at its 661.00 high, closed at its 610.00 low, and its price dropped below the Ichimoku cloud, a strong bearish signal. The three-day trend lasted two days. Turnover collapsed from Rs 10.52 crore to Rs 2.12 crore.

MLBSL fell another 5.18% after Tuesday's limit-down, on 223 transactions. Two sessions, ‑19.3% cumulative. The microfinance unwind flagged on Tuesday is continuing, and Microfinance breadth was 20 up / 30 down today.

CORBL is down three sessions from its spike: +8.47% Monday, ‑1.32% Tuesday, ‑4.74% today on Rs 4.19 crore and 621 transactions. It has now given back more than the entire Monday gain.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Top ten = 40.4% of market turnover; top twenty = 52.9%. Effectively unchanged from Tuesday's 40.4% / 52.7%. Concentration is stable but the composition changed completely.

SOHL and RIDI both halved. SOHL went from Rs 44.88 crore to Rs 22.07 crore; RIDI from Rs 33.68 crore to Rs 10.33 crore. Between them they fell from 19.1% of the market to 9.2%. The two names that defined the tape for three sessions are being unwound, and both closed lower again (‑0.72%, ‑0.53%), the fourth straight session neither has paid.

CFCL is new and large. Chhimek Finance did Rs 22.48 crore on 343,174 units at ‑1.22%, trading 625.10–697.00 an 11.5% range. Second-largest turnover on the board and it closed red. That is money arriving and finding sellers.

KBL led volume at 394,307 units, up 1.39% on Rs 8.64 crore, the only commercial bank in the top ten.

Most transacted: SGHL (1,888), SOHL (1,835), ECL (1,543), KAHL (1,219), NRN (921), CFCL (897), KKHC (834), KBL (783), TPKHL (751), SOPL (710).

SGHL topped the transaction count for the second session running on Rs 4.19 crore, an average ticket near Rs 22,000, still the retail extreme. SOHL's average ticket is Rs 120,000, five and a half times larger.

Bulk/block activity: the day's largest single transaction was RADHI at Rs 3.47 crore, printed at 10:46 AM unusually early; Tuesday's largest came at 12:05 PM. The five largest blocks totalled Rs 11.06 crore across RADHI (Rs 3.47 Cr), NRN (Rs 3.31 Cr), AKJCL (Rs 1.76 Cr), KKHC (Rs 1.29 Cr) and GBIME (Rs 1.23 Cr). Note the spread: five different names across four sectors, versus Tuesday's Rs 8.37 crore concentrated in just SOHL, RIDI and UHEWA. Block money diversified sharply.

The late-session block tape is worth reading directly: NRN printed three blocks totalling Rs 9.64 crore between 2:57:29 and 2:57:48 PM, and AKJCL took Rs 1.76 crore at 2:55:24. Institutional accumulation in the closing minutes, concentrated in the two names that led the rotation.

Previous Session Recap: Tuesday, 11 August

NEPSE closed at 2,641.85, up 0.79 points (+0.03%), snapping a three-session slide but only via the closing auction, which fired nearly 5,000 trades in the final minute and turned a red tape green. Turnover Rs 4.11 arab across 52,073 transactions; breadth 156 up, 157 down, 27 unchanged on 340 scripts.

Two circuits: ULHC limit-up at +14.99% after trading down to 353.60, and MLBSL limit-down at ‑14.91%. Hydropower took 55.2% of turnover for a +0.05% move, but breadth flipped positive (58 up / 47 down) even as SOHL and RIDI both fell. Thirteen of twenty commercial banks advanced after Monday's zero-gainer print.

Weekly context: NEPSE fell 35 points over the week to 7 August, weekly turnover Rs 21.45 arab, market cap around Rs 4.55 trillion. Across Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday the index has netted ‑7.68 points effectively flat for three sessions on steadily falling participation.

Top Stories in Nepal

• Mount Everest Power shares begin trading on NEPSE. MEPDL listed today at a 345.00 close on just 150 units and 15 transactions — a nominal debut. Listed companies rose to 437.

• Kumari Bank reports Rs 7.39 billion profit for FY 2082/83.

• Nepal SBI Bank profit rises 12.89% to Rs 2.04 billion.

• Muktinath Bikas Bank profit rises 12.44%, but distributable earnings lag. The gap between headline profit and distributable profit is the number to watch across this results season, it constrains dividend capacity regardless of the profit line.

Three bank results in one day, all showing double-digit profit growth, and Banking still closed +0.05% on 9 up / 10 down. Earnings are not moving bank prices.

Corporate Actions & Events

RNLI closed ‑0.33% today. With Shrawan 30 approaching, the promoter and employee lock-in release is the next dated supply event and the market has still not begun to price it.

What to Watch

2,629.22 is the new low, and it is the third consecutive session testing the same 2,629–2,630 zone. Tuesday's low was 2,629.77; today's was 2,629.22. Two tests, two bounces, 55 paisa apart. That is a real level. Below it there is nothing until the late-Ashad close near 2,633 breaks down entirely. Above, 2,648.57 is today's high and 2,676.40 still caps the downtrend.

Can eight Investment stocks hold Rs 42 crore a day? NRN, HIDCL, NIFRA and CHDC produced the only genuine sector move on the board. But the sector has eight traded names and NRN alone was 74% of its turnover. If NRN's bid goes, Investment's 12.1% share evaporates and there is no third sector waiting to receive it. Watch whether HIDCL and NIFRA both of which crossed above VWAP, EMA-50 and RSI-50 today draw money on their own tomorrow, or whether this was one large buyer in one name.

Hydropower at 42% share with 76 of 111 names down. The distortion this report has flagged for four sessions is unwinding, money is leavinh and for the first time it went somewhere rather than out of the market. But SOHL and RIDI have now had four consecutive sessions of large turnover and no price. Their turnover halved today. If it halves again, that trade is over, and the question becomes whether the sector finds a floor or the 31/76 breadth gets worse.

ULHC's two-day round trip is a warning about the whole tape. Limit-up Tuesday, limit-down Wednesday, on real volume both ways. Every headline gainer this week has reversed within a session or two: CORBL, DHEL, UHEWA, ANLB, ECL, FMDBL. Until a winner holds its gain for three sessions, treat every breakout on this board as a fade candidate.

Participation is the number that matters now: 53,524 → 52,073 → 43,990 transactions. Tuesday's turnover jump was auction mechanics, not demand, today's 15.5% drop in trade count confirms it. Turnover has gone 4.62 → 3.77 → 3.67 → 4.11 → 3.53 arab. The market is thinning while the index goes nowhere, and three bank results with double-digit profit growth could not change that. Watch for transactions back above 50,000 before treating any index move as meaningful.