NEPSE Markets Daily Recap August 14, 2026: The Rs 4.28 arab turnover print is fake

Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,643.83, down 7.37 points (‑0.27%), giving back 84% of Thursday's 8.81-point gain in a single session. The breadth reversal that made Thursday look like a turn lasted exactly one day: 130 advanced against 193 declined, 21 unchanged, 344 scripts traded. A/D of 0.67, back inside the 0.32–0.99 band that has defined this entire stretch.

The index opened at 2,649.11, touched 2,653.49 in the first leg, then sold steadily to 2,638.64 before a modest close-side bounce. It finished 5.19 points off the low and never came close to Thursday's 2,656.54 high.

Before anything else, the turnover number needs correcting. The headline reads Rs 4.28 arab, up 14.8% and the highest of the week. It is not what it appears. A single instrument ADBLB87, an Agricultural Development Bank debenture did Rs 70.88 crore on eight transactions, 700,000 units at 1,000–1,016. That is 16.6% of the entire market's turnover in one non-equity line, and it came through five near-identical blocks of 100,000 units each, worth roughly Rs 10.1 crore apiece, printed around 11:11 AM.

Strip it out and equity turnover was Rs 3.57 arab, down 4.2% from Thursday, not up 14.8%. Volume ex-ADBLB87 was 90.54 lakh units against Thursday's 1.02 crore down 11%. Transactions fell 6.0% to 43,060, the lowest of the week.

So the real tape: fewer trades, less volume, less equity money, negative breadth, index down. The Rs 4.28 arab print is a single institutional debenture placement wearing the market's clothes.

Market capitalisation fell to Rs 4.55 trillion from Rs 4.56 trillion.

Index Snapshot

Headline turnover Rs 4.28 arab (+14.83%) , Equity turnover ex-ADBLB87 Rs 3.57 arab (‑4.16%) · Volume 97.54 lakh units, 90.54 lakh ex-debenture (‑11.09%), Transactions 43,060 (‑6.03%), Scripts traded 344, Market cap Rs 4.55 trillion

Sensitive was the only index to close green (+0.02%), outperforming NEPSE by 29bps. On a broadly red day, the large-cap complex held. That is the one constructive line in the table.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Nine of thirteen sectors red, a complete inversion of Thursday's twelve-of-thirteen green.

Every sector that led Thursday reversed. Manufacturing & Processing went from best (+0.57%, breadth 12/2) to 3 up / 13 down at ‑0.38%. Non-Life Insurance went from 10 up / 4 down to 1 up / 14 down, the worst breadth on the board. Development Bank flipped from 10/5 to 5/10. Hydropower from 69/37 to 41/63.

Trading was the worst sector at ‑2.57%, driven entirely by BBC at ‑2.86% on Rs 0.34 crore, a two-stock index where one name moves it. Not a signal.

Investment fell for a second straight session at ‑0.92%, breadth 2 up / 5 down, with NRN ‑2.10% and HIDCL ‑1.08%. Wednesday's Rs 42.71 crore, +2.21% Investment surge has now fully unwound across two sessions: the sector's turnover is down to Rs 16.50 crore and it has been the worst or near-worst performer twice running.

Hydropower's share dropped back to 42.7% from 55.1%, and its breadth went negative again. The sector has now alternated 42% / 55% / 42% share, 31/76 then 69/37 then 41/63 breadth, for three sessions. There is no trend in it, just rotation in and out.

Life Insurance was the only sector with genuinely positive breadth at 10 up / 4 down on Rs 5.80 crore.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 0.67, down from Thursday's 1.66. Twenty-seven scripts gained more than 2% against 28 that fell more than 2% — nearly balanced at the extremes even as the broad count deteriorated. Median move ‑0.16%, back to negative after Thursday's +0.23%.

Technical scan: 4,892 signals, 1,245 bullish (25.45%) against 1,817 bearish (37.14%). The four-day series on bearish share: 41.80% → 40.41% → 38.76% → 37.14%. Bullish: 24.86% → 25.24% → 24.92% → 25.45%.

This is worth pausing on. Bearish signals have declined for four consecutive sessions even though price has gone nowhere and today was red. The indicator set is quietly improving underneath a flat index — the gap has narrowed from 16.9 points to 11.7. Still 1.46:1 bearish, so nothing is confirmed, but it is the only measure in this report that has moved in one direction all week.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Excluded: MEPDL (+15.00% on 220 units) and SAPIL (+14.99% on 60 units) — both new listings on negligible volume, still circuiting daily on trade counts in the single and double digits. Neither is price discovery. Also excluded: NICGF2, LSH12, SBLD2091 (25 units, 1 trade), SFEF, NIMBPO.

KKHC is the day's one genuine move. Kalika Power rose 10.09% to 352.30 on Rs 17.99 crore and 798 transactions, trading 311.50–352.30 and closing at the high. It was second by turnover behind only the ADBLB87 debenture block, and it did it on real participation. Notably, KKHC fell 1.23% on Thursday while the rest of hydro rallied — it is the only meaningful name on the board doing the opposite of the herd two days running.

BHCL (+6.86% on Rs 8.22 crore, 878 transactions) and LEC (+2.76% on Rs 16.56 crore, 1,074 transactions and 723,736 units — the highest volume on the exchange) were the other two hydro names with real money behind them.

FMDBL at +6.96% is a notable reversal: it was down 3.65% Tuesday, ‑0.77% Wednesday, ‑1.61% Thursday, and up 6.96% today.

Top Losers

Excluded as non-signal: SDBD87 (12 units), NICD83/84, SBLD83, HEIP (10 units, 1 trade), SLCF, HLBSL.

SKHL is the reversal of the week. Thursday's top gainer at +13.02%, closing 998.00. Today it opened at 948.10 — already 5% below Thursday's close — and fell to 870.00, ‑12.83%, on Rs 5.35 crore and 574 transactions. A 25.8-point round trip in two sessions.

GHL gave back a quarter of its move. Thursday's headline name — Rs 29.98 crore, 2,842 transactions, +11.90% — opened at 256.70, made 260.50, and closed at 249.00, ‑3.00%, on Rs 7.93 crore. Turnover collapsed 74%. This report flagged yesterday that GHL at 8% of the market in one name "is the kind of concentration that has marked the top in every name this week." It did.

ULHC has now fallen four straight sessions: 436.60 (limit-up) → 371.20 (limit-down) → 359.00 → 342.00. Down 21.7% from Tuesday's close, and it made a fresh low today at 332.00. On 401 transactions — participation is rising as it falls.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

ADBLB87 at Rs 70.88 crore on eight trades is the print that defines the session. Its average ticket is Rs 8.86 crore — the market's overall average ticket is Rs 99,296. One line item, eight transactions, 16.6% of the day's money.

On the equity-only base, concentration actually improved: top ten at 31.5% and top twenty at 47.9% of equity turnover, against Thursday's 34.8% and 47.9%. The dispersion that started Thursday held.

SOHL and RIDI continue to shrink. SOHL: Rs 44.88 → 22.07 → 15.71 → 10.70 crore across four sessions, with today its sixth consecutive session without a gain. RIDI: Rs 33.68 → 10.33 → 9.70 → 9.74 crore, fifth straight decline. Combined they are 4.8% of the market, down from 19.1% on Tuesday. That trade is essentially finished.

Most transacted: SGHL (1,704), LEC (1,074), SOHL (1,065), PRVU (1,065), BHCL (878), KAHL (854), GHL (816), KKHC (798), TPKHL (607), RIDI (599).

SGHL tops the transaction count for a fourth consecutive session — the most persistent retail footprint on this exchange. PRVU is new to this list: 1,065 transactions and 348,024 units for Rs 6.50 crore at ‑1.58%, the only commercial bank in the volume top ten.

Bulk/block activity: total block value Rs 4.13 arab across 41,951 transactions, but the top five blocks were all ADBLB87 — Rs 10.16, 10.15, 10.14, 10.12 and 10.11 crore, each exactly 100,000 units, totalling Rs 50.68 crore. The largest printed at 11:11:25 AM. Five identical institutional tickets in one debenture is a placement or a portfolio transfer, not market activity, and it is why the day's average deal size jumped to Rs 98,483 from Rs 81,796.

Compare the block tape across the week: Tuesday was SOHL/RIDI/UHEWA (Rs 8.37 Cr), Wednesday RADHI/NRN/AKJCL/KKHC/GBIME (Rs 11.06 Cr), Thursday CFCL/SBI/UMHL/ADBL (Rs 12.34 Cr), today one debenture (Rs 50.68 Cr). Genuine equity block activity has been running Rs 8–12 crore a day and did not grow.

Previous Session Recap: Thursday, 13 August

NEPSE closed at 2,651.21, up 8.81 points (+0.33%) — the largest gain in a fortnight, with breadth of 202 up / 122 down (A/D 1.66), the first reading above parity in the stretch. Twelve of thirteen sectors closed green; Investment was the sole decliner at ‑0.49% after leading the day before.

GHL did Rs 29.98 crore on 2,842 transactions at +11.90%, 8.05% of the market in one name. Hydropower took 55.1% of turnover with breadth of 69 up / 37 down. Concentration eased to 34.8% in the top ten. Turnover Rs 3.72 arab on 45,822 transactions.

Weekly context: the six sessions from 7 to 14 August: 2,650.08 → 2,641.06 → 2,641.85 → 2,642.40 → 2,651.21 → 2,643.83. Net change over the week: ‑6.25 points, or ‑0.24%. Equity turnover across the week: 3.77 → 3.67 → 4.11 → 3.53 → 3.72 → 3.57 arab. The index has traded in a 22-point band for six sessions while participation slowly contracted.

Top Stories in Nepal

• Arun Kabeli's profit falls as costs rise. AKJCL closed ‑0.83% on Rs 5.84 crore.

• Chilime's eleven-year earnings story is fading. A structural read on one of the sector's oldest names, arriving in the same week hydropower has taken 42–55% of daily turnover.

• Upper Solu's five-year turnaround is taking shape.

• Citizens Bank doubles down on profit recovery.

• Prime Commercial Bank's profit accelerates as credit costs ease. PRVU fell 1.58% today on 1,065 transactions.

Note the pattern: three consecutive sessions of positive bank earnings coverage, and Banking has closed +0.39%, ‑0.14% and flat. Earnings are not moving bank prices in this tape.

Corporate Actions & Events

RNLI rose 0.14% today. The Shrawan 30 promoter and employee lock-in release is now days away and the market still is not pricing it, the same observation this report has made for four sessions running.

What to Watch

Thursday was a one-day event, and that is now the established pattern of this market. Six sessions, and every single directional move has been given back within one or two: Investment's +2.21% surge, GHL's +11.90%, SKHL's +13.02%, ULHC's two circuits, CORBL's +8.47%, UHEWA's two-day run. Nothing on this board has held a gain for three consecutive sessions since before 7 August. Until something does, treat every breakout as a fade.

Watch the turnover print carefully next week. Today's Rs 4.28 arab would, taken at face value, read as the strongest participation of the week. It is the opposite: equity turnover fell 4.2%, volume fell 11%, transactions fell 6% to the week's low. If a similar debenture or promoter-share block prints again, the headline will mislead in the same way. The number to track is equity turnover ex-block, and the level to watch is whether it holds Rs 3.5 arab.

Bearish technical signals have fallen four sessions running: 41.80% → 40.41% → 38.76% → 37.14%. This is the only measure in this report trending in one direction, and it is doing so while price goes nowhere. Either the indicator set is anticipating a base, or it is decaying toward neutral because nothing is moving. A green session with bearish share below 35% would be the first real confirmation; a red session that pushes it back above 39% would kill the idea.

KKHC is the one name to follow. It fell on Thursday when everything rose, and rose 10.09% today when everything fell, on Rs 17.99 crore and 798 transactions, closing at its high. Two sessions of trading opposite to the herd on genuine volume. If it holds above 340 on Sunday it is the first name in a week with an actual trend rather than a spike.

SOHL and RIDI are done as a trade. Combined 4.8% of turnover, down from 19.1% on Tuesday; SOHL has not closed up in six sessions. The Rs 150 crore that sat in those two names has dispersed into KKHC, LEC, BHCL, NGPL and GHL rather than leaving the market which is why equity concentration keeps improving even as the index falls. That dispersion is the healthiest thing happening on this tape.

Levels: 2,638.64 is today's low and the 2,629 zone below it has held three times. 2,656.54 is Thursday's high and remains the near ceiling; 2,676.40 is still the level that has to break to end the downtrend, now 33 points away further than it was on Thursday.