NEPSE Markets Daily Recap August 20, 2026: 61 of 111 hydro names finally move together

Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,629.40, up 7.17 points (+0.27%). More important than the gain is where it came from and what the tape did underneath it.

The session started badly. The index opened at 2,622.97 and immediately sank to 2,608.39 a fresh low for the stretch, 1.46 points below Wednesday's 2,609.85. That is the second consecutive session of making a new low in the first hour. And for the second consecutive session it did not hold: the index reversed and climbed steadily through the afternoon to close at 2,629.40, just 0.16 points off its 2,629.56 high.

Closing at the day's high, 21 points off the low, after making a new low that combination has not appeared once in this coverage period.

Breadth crossed parity: 163 advanced against 161 declined, 21 unchanged, 345 scripts traded. An A/D of 1.01, the first reading above 1.0 since 13 August and only the second in the entire fortnight.

The sector-level detail is better than the headline number:

• Hydropower: 61 up, 46 down after 18/90 on Tuesday

• Commercial Banks: 13 up, 6 down a second consecutive positive session

• Manufacturing & Processing: 10 up, 5 down

Twenty-eight scripts gained more than 2%, against 27 that fell more than 2% the first session where the winning tail outnumbered the losing one since 13 August. Median move exactly 0.00%.

The turnover figure needs the usual correction, and this time it is a repeat offender. Headline turnover is Rs 4.40 arab. ADBLB87, the ADBL debenture that distorted Friday and Tuesday is back with Rs 50.65 crore on five transactions, 500,000 units at 1,012–1,015, the largest at 12:34:30 PM. That is 11.5% of the market in one non-equity line, and it is the third appearance of what is now clearly a structured placement running through the exchange in identical Rs 10.1 crore tranches.

Equity turnover ex-debenture: Rs 3.89 arab up 18.1% from Wednesday's Rs 3.30 arab. Transactions rose 12.2% to 47,919. Volume was flat at 95.01 lakh units.

So: real equity money up 18%, more trades, positive breadth, closed at the high. That is the most constructive combination this report has recorded.

Market capitalisation recovered to Rs 4.52 trillion.

Index Snapshot

Headline turnover Rs 4.40 arab
Equity turnover ex-ADBLB87 Rs 3.89 arab (+18.1% DoD)
Volume 95.01 lakh units
Transactions 47,919 (+12.2%)
Scripts traded 345
Market cap Rs 4.52 trillion

Every index closed at or within 0.02 of its high. Sensitive (+0.40%) outperformed NEPSE by 13bps and closed exactly at its 462.89 high, large caps led which is the opposite of the mid-cap-only rallies that failed earlier in this stretch.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Hydropower is the story, and for once the index and the internals agree. The sector rose 0.99% — its largest gain of this coverage period on breadth of 61 up / 46 down, with 49.4% of turnover. Compare Tuesday: 18 up / 90 down. The recovery in the sector's internals across two sessions (18/90 → 48/57 → 61/46) is the most sustained directional improvement in any measure this report tracks.

And this time it was not two names carrying it. TAMOR +4.85%, SMHL +4.16%, SHPC +4.05%, NHPC +3.42%, SOHL +2.48%, RIDI +0.97%, UHEWA +1.64%, MEN +1.93%, API +1.64%, NGPL +1.23% — ten names with meaningful turnover all up together.

Banks posted a second consecutive positive session: 13 up / 6 down, +0.28%. MBL +1.05%, SBL +0.81%, NBL +0.73%, KBL +0.65%, PRVU +0.55%, NMB +0.54%, SANIMA +0.24%. This report has tracked the sector for six sessions after a week of double-digit profit growth announcements: +0.39%, ‑0.14%, ‑0.50%, ‑0.59%, +0.06%, +0.28%. Two green closes in a row with two-thirds of names participating.

Development Bank was the weakest real sector at ‑0.37% on 4 up / 11 down, dragged by SAPDBL ‑3.92%, GRDBL ‑3.40% and CORBL ‑3.31%.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 1.01. The series: 0.32 → 0.51 → 0.99 → 0.70 → 1.66 → 0.67 → 0.35 → 0.32 → 0.79 → 1.01.

Technical scan: 4,752 signals, 1,039 bullish (21.86%) against 1,881 bearish (39.58%).

The divergence flagged yesterday persists. Bullish share ticked up marginally from Wednesday's series-low 21.64% to 21.86%, but bearish share also rose, from 39.58% versus 40.81%, a slight narrowing of the gap to 17.7 points from 19.2 but still far wider than the 11.7-point best on 14 August.

Two sessions of improving price and breadth have barely moved the indicator set. That remains the single most important unresolved question on this tape: either the technicals are lagging a genuine base, or the price action is a two-day bounce inside a downtrend. The scan has been wrong-footed before, it improved for four straight sessions into 14 August and the market then broke down.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Excluded: MEPDL (+14.99%) and SAPIL (+14.99%) new listings on their sixth consecutive limit-up. Note MEPDL is no longer trivial: 2,854 transactions and 28,980 units on Rs 2.31 crore, the highest transaction count on the entire exchange. It has gone 345 → 797.60 in six sessions, up 131%, and it is now drawing real retail participation. Still excluded from the main table as a listing artifact, but it has become a genuine speculative vehicle. Also excluded: NICSF, MMF1, NBLD82 (1 trade), EBLD85 (10 units), SBID83, NICFC.

Four of the top ten closed at or within 0.2 rupees of their session high: TAMOR, MANDU, RLEL and NHPC. Closing at the high on a green day is the mark of demand that did not exhaust.

TAMOR and SMHL are the two names with real weight behind them. Tamor Energy rose 4.85% on Rs 14.84 crore across 789 transactions, trading 460.00 to 482.00 and closing at 481.80, twenty paisa off the high. Sanima Mai Hydropower rose 4.16% on Rs 16.21 crore and 1,376 transactions.

RSML has fully recovered its block-trade round trip. After Monday's +11.17% on Rs 31.53 crore of blocks, then ‑4.10% and ‑0.55%, it rose 2.73% today to 2,784.00 on Rs 30.05 crore and 987 transactions, this time with no block cluster behind it; the day's largest non-ADBLB87 block was SHPC at Rs 1.83 crore. It traded 2,610.60 to 2,830.00, a 8.4% range, and finished above where the block buyer left it on Monday.

That is a meaningful distinction. Monday's move was one institution; today's was 987 trades.

Top Losers

Excluded as non-signal: KDBY (‑9.77%), KEF (‑9.00%), ICFCD83 (1 unit, 1 trade, third consecutive session appearing on this list on a single unit), NIBLGF, RMF1, SLCF.

KKHC is the standout weakness on an otherwise green day. It fell 5.97% to 278.80 on Rs 7.18 crore and 741 transactions, trading 274.00 to 295.00. Its arc: +10.09% (14 Aug) → ‑6.33% → ‑9.67% → ‑0.84% → ‑5.97%. Down 20.9% in four sessions from Friday's close of 352.30. On a day when 61 of 111 hydro names rose, KKHC fell nearly 6%.

HATHY fell a fourth consecutive session: ‑3.60%, ‑5.16%, ‑2.54%, ‑3.68%. Cumulatively ‑14.3% across four days, and it closed at 581.00 against a 580.00 low.

MEHL is confirming yesterday's failure. Tuesday +4.78%, Wednesday ‑8.45%, today ‑3.47% to 250.00. Down 11.6% in two sessions from the spike, on 651 transactions.

CORBL and SAPDBL both fell for a third session, and Development Bank was the weakest sector, the one part of the market that did not participate in today's recovery.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Nine of the top ten by turnover closed green every one except the debenture, which is flat by nature. On Tuesday, nine of ten closed red. That inversion in two sessions is the clearest sign the money is now finding names that work.

Excluding ADBLB87, concentration was 37.9% in the top ten and 51.2% in the top twenty, up from Wednesday's 31.5% and 45.6%, but the increase came from money flowing into rising names rather than crowding into a single position.

SOHL closed up 2.48% at 699.00 on Rs 22.99 crore and 1,440 transactions, trading 674.10 to 702.00. It has now had two green closes in three sessions after a six-session losing run, and its turnover is rising again.

RIDI's turn has continued: +0.47% Wednesday, +0.97% today to 364.80, on Rs 9.38 crore. Two consecutive gains after seven straight declines. It opened at its 365.00 high, dipped to 356.10, and closed at 364.80 recovered the entire intraday drop.

SAHAS held its gain. Rs 16.70 crore, +1.14%, second consecutive up session, trading in a tight 693.90–711.00 band. It was yesterday's cleanest accumulation print and it did not give it back.

Most transacted: MEPDL (2,854), SGHL (1,518), SOHL (1,440), SMHL (1,376), SAHAS (1,310), RSML (987), KAHL (958), TAMOR (789), KKHC (741), MEN (731).

MEPDL taking the top transaction count on the exchange, on Rs 2.31 crore, is worth noting: an average ticket of about Rs 8,100, the smallest on the board by a wide margin. A newly listed stock circuiting daily on tiny tickets and 2,854 trades is retail speculation, and it has displaced SGHL from a six-session run at the top.

Bulk/block activity: Rs 3.93 arab across 43,160 blocks, average deal size Rs 91,092. The top four blocks were all ADBLB87 at Rs 10.15 Cr, Rs 10.13 Cr, Rs 10.12 Cr and Rs 10.12 Cr each exactly 100,000 units, totalling Rs 40.52 crore with SHPC fifth at Rs 1.83 crore.

The ADBLB87 placement has now run through the exchange on three separate sessions in identical 100,000-unit, ~Rs 10.1 crore tranches: roughly Rs 142 crore in total across 14 August, 18 August and 20 August. Excluding it, genuine equity block activity today was around Rs 1.83 crore at the top, the smallest of the coverage period.

Previous Session Recap: Wednesday, 19 August

NEPSE closed at 2,622.22, down 0.26 points, after making a new low of 2,609.85 and recovering. Breadth improved sharply to 140 up / 178 down (A/D 0.79) from Tuesday's 0.32, with banks flipping to 12 up / 7 down. The turnover print was clean for the first time in four sessions, no block distortion and at Rs 3.30 arab it was the lowest of the stretch with volume down 37% and transactions down 23%. Concentration hit series lows of 31.5% and 45.6%. The technical scan deteriorated to its worst reading: bullish 21.64%.

Two-week context: the ten sessions from 7 to 20 August: 2,650.08 → 2,641.06 → 2,641.85 → 2,642.40 → 2,651.21 → 2,643.83 → 2,641.82 → 2,622.48 → 2,622.22 → 2,629.40. Net ‑20.68 points, ‑0.78%. The index broke a four-times-tested floor on 18 August, made two successive new lows on 19 and 20 August, and both times closed back above the broken level.

Top Stories in Nepal

Scanning ShareSansar, Nepali Paisa, Merolagani, Bizpato and Bajarko Chirfar:

• NMB Bank leads Rs 44.55 billion financing for the 440 MW Tila-1 hydropower project. This is the second Tila financing announcement in three days, Tila-2 (420 MW) closed Rs 70.07 billion on Tuesday with Everest Bank leading. Together the two projects have drawn roughly Rs 115 billion of new bank commitment inside a single week, into a sector whose sole offtaker, NEA, reported a 43% profit decline on Monday. That concentration of banking-sector exposure to hydropower credit is the most significant structural development of this fortnight, and it cuts both ways: it is a large new asset book for the banks and a large new counterparty risk.

• NEPSE suspended Beni Securities (Broker No. 93) for three working days after CDSC reported the firm failed to complete clearing and settlement within the deadline, acting under Regulation 22(1)(gha) of the Securities Trading Operation Regulations, 2075. The Share Investors Association has responded by urging protection for investor assets. Context: SEBON suspended Bhrikuti Stock Broking (Broker No. 55) in April 2026 over misuse of client funds, affecting roughly 79,000 investors and Rs 5.11 billion. Shares held at CDSC were unaffected in that case but cash parked with the broker was the exposed piece. A second settlement failure inside five months is a market-infrastructure signal, not a one-off.

• SEBON is preparing to introduce new market products as brokers push for legal reform. Combines with the short-selling signal and the primary-market reform task force flagged earlier this month, the regulator has multiple structural workstreams running at once.

• Muktinath Bikas Bank launched a festive-season agriculture and SME loan scheme. Muktinath reported 12.44% profit growth last week with distributable earnings lagging.

• Bonus shares of Sanima GIC Insurance listed on NEPSE.

• CIB has frozen the bank accounts of stock trader Deependra Agrawal and associates, a further enforcement action in the sequence that includes the Himalayan Reinsurance money-laundering investigation.

• Dirgha Rawal appointed Deputy Governor of Nepal Rastra Bank and Machhapuchchhre Bank appointed Kalyan Bikram Pandey as Deputy CEO.

• 10% Himalayan Bank Debenture 2083 delisted from NEPSE.

Corporate Actions & Events

RNLI rose 1.78% today after falling 1.08% on Wednesday. Two sessions of real movement in a name that had been inert for a week ahead of its Shrawan 30 lock-in release and it moved up. Listed companies fell from 437 to 436 with the Himalayan Bank debenture delisting.

What to Watch

Two new lows, two closes back above the broken floor. 2,609.85 on Wednesday, 2,608.39 today and both times the index recovered. Today it closed 21 points off the low and 0.16 points off the high. The 2,608–2,610 zone has now been tested twice and rejected twice. That is the first evidence of genuine demand at a level in this entire coverage period. Above, the broken 2,629–2,633 floor is now immediately overhead, today closed at 2,629.40, right at its lower edge. Reclaiming 2,633 turns broken support back into support.

Hydropower's internals have improved three sessions running: 18/90 → 48/57 → 61/46. And today ten names with real turnover rose together rather than two carrying the index. This is the first time in the coverage that the sector's 49% turnover share has produced a real price move with real participation. Watch whether it holds, the sector index at 3,750.98 is now above where it sat on 7 August, the first time it has been in positive territory for the stretch.

Banks: two consecutive green sessions, 13 up / 6 down. The heaviest index weight is finally participating. Combined with Sensitive outperforming and closing exactly at its high, the large-cap complex is leading rather than dragging for the first time since 13 August.

The technical scan still has not confirmed anything. Bullish at 21.86%, bearish at 39.58%, gap 17.7 points. Two sessions of improving price and breadth have moved it barely at all. This is the divergence to resolve: the scan improved for four straight sessions into 14 August and the market then broke down so it is not a reliable leading indicator on its own but a genuine base would normally show up there within a few sessions. If breadth holds above parity tomorrow and the scan is still under 23% bullish, treat the rally with caution.

KKHC is now the clearest short-side tell on the board. Down 20.9% in four sessions, falling 5.97% on a day when its sector rose 0.99% and 61 of 111 names in it advanced. A name that cannot rally when everything around it does is being distributed.

Rs 115 billion of new bank lending into hydropower in one week, against NEA's 43% profit decline. Tila-1 (Rs 44.55bn, NMB leading) and Tila-2 (Rs 70.07bn, Everest leading). This is the fundamental question hanging over both sectors and it will not resolve on a daily tape but it is why hydro spikes have failed repeatedly and why bank earnings have not moved bank prices.

Read the block tape, still. ADBLB87 has now placed roughly Rs 142 crore across three sessions in identical tranches. Today's Rs 4.40 arab headline is Rs 3.89 arab of equity which is genuinely an 18% improvement on Wednesday, the best real number of the week. Just not Rs 4.40 arab.