NEPSE Markets Daily Recap August 25, 2026: Big Money Returns to a Weakening NEPSE

Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,594.27, down 5.30 points (‑0.20%) — a second consecutive sub-2,600 close and a fresh low for this coverage period. The index has now fallen in four of the last five sessions, and the decline has slowed rather than stopped.

Breadth improved off Monday's extreme but stayed firmly negative: 78 advanced against 187 declined, 17 unchanged. An A/D of 0.42, against Monday's record-worst 0.21. Better, but still the fourth-worst reading in thirteen sessions, and nowhere near parity.

Two sectors closed green: Non-Life Insurance (+0.36%) and Development Bank (+0.08%) ending Monday's clean sweep of red. Banking was essentially flat at ‑0.03%.

The money came back, and it came back in size. Turnover rose 26.9% to Rs 4.11 arab. Volume rose 16.6% to 1.00 crore units from 85.73 lakh. Scripts traded hit 357, the highest of the coverage period.

But transactions fell 12.3% to 46,589, and the average block deal size jumped 45.4% to Rs 88,756 from Monday's record-low Rs 61,058. Fewer trades, larger tickets, more volume. That is the exact inverse of Friday's profile (record 59,805 transactions on Rs 69,099 average tickets) and it reverses three consecutive sessions of shrinking size.

Where that size went is the story. MAKAR Makar Jitumaya Suri Hydropower was the day's top name by both volume and turnover, closed +4.80% at 439.00, and accounted for three of the five largest blocks on the exchange: Rs 3.40 crore, Rs 2.03 crore and Rs 2.02 crore, totalling Rs 7.45 crore. It also took two of the top five slots by quantity (84,053 and 50,226 units).

Add RSML's Rs 5.44 crore block, the single largest of the day at 1:43:39 PM and CGH's Rs 3.19 crore, and the top five blocks totalled Rs 16.09 crore, more than double Monday's Rs 7.34 crore.

So institutional size returned to a market where 187 of 357 scrips still fell. It concentrated in two names.

Index Snapshot

Turnover Rs 4.11 arab (+26.9% DoD)
Volume 1.00 crore units (+16.6%)
Transactions 46,589 (‑12.3%)
Scripts traded 357 (highest of coverage)
Advancers 78
Decliners 187
Unchanged 17

Sensitive fell 0.11% against NEPSE's 0.20% large caps outperformed by 9bps, the first session since 20 August where they held up better than the broad index.

Sectoral Indices Performance

Finance was the worst sector at ‑0.91%, with CFCL ‑2.90%, GMFIL ‑2.53%, PROFL ‑2.28%, BFC ‑1.83%, GFCL ‑1.19%, GUFL ‑1.03%. CFCL has now fallen through most of this fortnight and closed 582.20 — it was trading above 650 a week ago.

Hydropower fell a third consecutive session at ‑0.42%, though the decline is moderating (‑0.66% → ‑1.19% → ‑0.42%). The sector index at 3,665.62 is the lowest of the coverage. Internally it split: MAKAR +4.80%, SMHL +2.30%, TAMOR +0.50%, AKJCL +0.32%, NGPL +0.20%, SOHL +0.01% against RIDI ‑1.43%, KKHC ‑1.76%, NHPC ‑1.07%, MEHL ‑3.31%, BHL ‑0.49%, LEC ‑0.47%, HPPL ‑0.50%.

Banking was flat at ‑0.03% and is the steadiest thing on this tape: SANIMA +0.19%, GBIME +0.12%, NBL +0.11%, KBL +0.05% against PRVU ‑0.22%, NICA ‑0.87%, SBL ‑0.22%, LSL ‑0.46%. NIMB unchanged. Both SANIMA and KBL appear in the volume top ten, two commercial banks drawing real volume while closing green is a first for this stretch.

Non-Life Insurance was the best sector at +0.36%, led by HEI +0.83%, NICL +0.60%, SALICO +0.34%, IGI +0.07%, a rare instance of a sector rising on broad internals rather than one name.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 0.42. The series: 0.32 → 0.51 → 0.99 → 0.70 → 1.66 → 0.67 → 0.35 → 0.32 → 0.79 → 1.01 → 0.36 → 0.21 → 0.42.

Thirteen sessions, two above parity, both immediately reversed. The market has now spent eleven of thirteen sessions with more decliners than advancers.

Technical scan as of 2:58 PM, two minutes before the close: 5,181 signals, 1,109 bullish (21.41%) against 2,117 bearish (40.86%).

Three things here, and none of them good.

Bullish share at 21.41% is the lowest reading of the entire coverage period, undercutting Wednesday 19 August's 21.64%. Bearish share at 40.86% is the highest since 10 August. The gap has widened to 19.5 points, the widest of the coverage, surpassing the 19.2 recorded on 19 August.

And total signals rebounded hard, from Monday's collapsed 3,306 to 5,181, the highest count of the coverage, a 56.7% jump. Monday's reading suggested a market emptying out; today's says the opposite. A great deal is triggering technically, and 40.9% of it is bearish.

Yesterday's report flagged that a signal count staying near 3,300 would mean participation had structurally thinned. It did not stay there. The activity returned pointing down.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

SAPIL closed limit-up for a ninth consecutive session, at 1,054.70. From its 345.00 debut that is +206% in nine sessions, the stock has tripled. It has never had a red day. On volumes in the low hundreds of units, it remains listing mechanics rather than price discovery, but it has now crossed Rs 1,000 and is the most extreme move on the exchange by a wide margin.

CREST at +14.95% is a straight reversal. It was Monday's ninth-worst loser at ‑4.39% (1,090.00); today it closed 1,253.00, essentially limit-up and it is the only Life Insurance name that moved at all on a day the sector fell 0.09%.

ECL rose 5.71% to 1,406.00 after falling 5.01% on Monday. Its fortnight: 1,665 → 1,584 → 1,529.90 → 1,575 → 1,400.10 → 1,330 → 1,406. Six reversals in seven sessions.

KHPL +5.56% was Monday's seventh-worst loser at ‑4.66%. SPHL +3.39% extends Monday's +6.27% — one of only two names on the board with consecutive gains.

MAKAR is the name that matters. Up 4.80% to 439.00, top by both volume and turnover, with Rs 7.45 crore across three of the day's five largest blocks. This is the first genuinely new large-cap-scale accumulation since SAHAS on 19 August, and the block concentration is heavier than anything since the RSML placement on 17 August.

The precedent is not encouraging. RSML rose 11.17% on Rs 31.53 crore of blocks on 17 August and gave it all back within two sessions. Whether MAKAR holds is the single cleanest test on the board.

Top Losers

DLBS completed the full round trip in three sessions. Friday: worst loser at ‑5.26% (1,027.00). Monday: second-best gainer at +11.98% (1,150.00). Today: worst loser at ‑10.07% (1,034.20). It is now within Rs 7 of where it started, having moved 12% up and 10% down inside 48 hours.

That is failed breakout number twelve. Yesterday's report named DLBS, KKHC and HATHY as the three candidates for attempt twelve and said the base case was all three failing within two sessions. DLBS failed in one. KKHC failed too, closing ‑1.76% after Monday's +3.33%.

HATHY is the exception, and it is now the only one. It closed +0.49% today, a third consecutive gain (+4.99%, +3.33%, +0.49%). Small, decelerating, but green. It is the only name on this exchange other than SAPIL currently holding a multi-session advance and the first genuine candidate to break the twelve-session pattern.

MEHL fell for a fourth session in five, closing 236.90 down 16.3% from its 282.90 close on 18 August.

CORBL fell a fourth consecutive session to 907.90. From its 1,155.20 spike on 10 August it is down 21.4%.

Microfinance again supplied the volatility: DLBS, USLB and SWASTIK among the worst, NADEP among the best, with the sector index down just 0.27%. Second consecutive session of violent two-way dispersion inside a nearly flat sector.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Most active by volume: MAKAR (439.00, +4.80%), RIDI (351.90, ‑1.43%), AKJCL (347.10, +0.32%), SMHL (524.80, +2.30%), SOHL (679.00, +0.01%), SANIMA (370.70, +0.19%), BHL (204.00, ‑0.49%), TAMOR (480.40, +0.50%), KBL (214.00, +0.05%), NHPC (258.80, ‑1.07%).

Seven of the ten turnover leaders closed green or flat, and seven of ten by volume. On Monday nine of ten were red in both. That inversion, on a day the index still fell, means the money that traded found names that worked — even as the broad board did not.

RIDI made another new low at 351.90. Its arc across the fortnight: 386.00 → 377.00 → 375.00 → 371.00 → 367.90 → 361.60 → 359.60 → 364.80 → 359.90 → 357.00 → 351.90. Ten declines in eleven sessions, and it remains a top-five turnover name throughout. Money keeps going in; the price keeps going down.

RSML was flat at ‑0.04% but took the day's single largest block at Rs 5.44 crore. It has been the exchange's top or second turnover name for seven consecutive sessions while trading between 2,725 and 2,841 going nowhere on enormous volume.

SOHL closed +0.01% at 679.00, breaking a three-session losing run by a single paisa.

SMHL rose 2.30% and was fourth by both volume and turnover, the strongest non-MAKAR hydro name on the board.

Bulk/block activity as of 2:59 PM, one minute before the close: Rs 3.98 arab across 44,823 blocks, average deal size Rs 88,756, up 45.4% from Monday's record-low Rs 61,058. Largest single block: RSML at Rs 5.44 crore, 1:43:39 PM. Top five totalled Rs 16.09 crore: RSML (Rs 5.44 Cr), MAKAR (Rs 3.40 Cr), CGH (Rs 3.19 Cr), MAKAR again (Rs 2.03 Cr) and MAKAR again (Rs 2.02 Cr). Top five by quantity: MAKAR (84,053 and 50,226), PRSF (76,800), GBIME (75,807), RBBF40 (53,919).

The block tape across the last six sessions: Rs 40.55 Cr (ADBLB87) → Rs 6.71 Cr → Rs 7.34 Cr → Rs 16.09 Cr. Genuine equity block activity has more than doubled from Monday, and it is concentrated: MAKAR alone took Rs 7.45 crore across three tickets.

Previous Session Recap: Monday, 24 August

NEPSE fell 19.13 points (‑0.73%) to 2,599.58, the first sub-2,600 close of the coverage, with breadth collapsing to 48 up / 230 down an A/D of 0.21, the worst recorded. Every single sector closed red. Turnover fell 22.3% to Rs 3.24 arab with the average block ticket at a record-low Rs 61,058, and total technical signals collapsed 30% to 3,306. SHPC failed as the eleventh consecutive breakout. Hydropower was the worst sector for a second session at ‑1.19%.

Two-week context: the thirteen sessions from 7 to 25 August: 2,650.08 → 2,641.06 → 2,641.85 → 2,642.40 → 2,651.21 → 2,643.83 → 2,641.82 → 2,622.48 → 2,622.22 → 2,629.40 → 2,618.72 → 2,599.58 → 2,594.27. Net ‑55.81 points, ‑2.11%. Turnover across the same window has oscillated between Rs 3.24 and Rs 4.17 arab with no trend.

Top Stories in Nepal

• ICRA Nepal reaffirms BB+ rating. Credit rating actions matter more than usual right now: banks have committed roughly Rs 115 billion to Tila-1 and Tila-2 hydropower financing in the past fortnight, NEA reported a 43% profit decline, NRB is withdrawing Rs 85 billion from BFIs, and the government is moving on a new PPA process. A reaffirmation rather than a downgrade is the mildly constructive read in that cluster.

• Beni Hydropower IPO opens for public subscription. Fresh hydropower supply arriving into a sector that has been the worst or second-worst performer for three consecutive sessions and whose index sits at the low of this coverage period. Note also that Beni Securities (Broker No. 93) is separately under a NEPSE suspension unrelated entities, similar names.

• Kamana Sewa proposes a 15% cash dividend and Super Madi proposes a 15.79% dividend. Dividend season is beginning. Through this fortnight, earnings announcements, three banks with double-digit profit growth, the finance sector's 97% Q4 profit surge have consistently failed to move prices. Whether cash dividend proposals land differently is worth watching, since they are a direct return rather than a reported number.

• Global IME launches a 5.17% auto loan, timed to the NADA Auto Show running Bhadra 9–14. Nepal Bank announced a comparable product on Monday. Two banks competing on auto loan pricing in consecutive sessions.

Corporate Actions & Events

BJHL's mutual fund lock-in on 145,975 units expires Shrawan 26 that is now imminent. RNLI's Shrawan 30 promoter and employee release follows days later. Both arrive into a market that has closed below 2,600 twice and has an A/D that has been under parity in eleven of thirteen sessions.

What to Watch

2,594.27 is a fresh low with nothing tested beneath it. The index has now closed below 2,600 in consecutive sessions, which confirms Monday's break was not a one-day overshoot. The decline is decelerating ‑19.13 then ‑5.30 but decelerating is not stopping. Overhead, 2,599.58 and then the 2,608–2,610 zone are the first two hurdles, and the broken 2,629–2,633 floor is now 35 points away.

MAKAR is the cleanest test on the board. Top by volume and turnover, +4.80%, Rs 7.45 crore across three of the day's five biggest blocks. Every prior instance of this profile in the coverage, RSML on 17 August, SAHAS on 19 August, GHL on 13 August has reversed within one to three sessions. If MAKAR holds above 430 on Wednesday it will be the first block-driven move in a fortnight to survive contact with the next session.

HATHY is the last name standing. Three consecutive gains (+4.99%, +3.33%, +0.49%) and the only non-listing-artifact name on the exchange holding a multi-session advance after twelve consecutive breakout failures. The gain is decelerating sharply, which is how the previous eleven began to fail. But it is the only candidate.

The technical scan is at its most bearish of the entire coverage, and the signal count is at its highest. Bullish 21.41% (record low), bearish 40.86% (highest since 10 August), gap 19.5 points (record wide), total signals 5,181 (record high). Monday's collapse to 3,306 signals looked like a market going quiet; today says the machinery is fully active and pointing down. On price, the index fell only 5.30 points. That divergence has resolved against the price every time it has appeared in this coverage.

Size returned but trades fell. Average block ticket up 45% to Rs 88,756, transactions down 12.3% to 46,589, scripts traded at a coverage-high 357. Larger participants are engaging while smaller ones step back, the opposite of Friday. Watch whether transactions recover above 50,000 alongside the size; if not, this is a small number of large accounts repositioning rather than the market broadening.

Banks remain the steadiest part of the tape. Flat at ‑0.03% with SANIMA and KBL both in the volume top ten and green. Not strength, but the absence of weakness in the heaviest index weight and the only sector that has not had a genuinely bad session in over a week. Any stabilisation likely starts here.

Dividend season begins. Kamana Sewa at 15% and Super Madi at 15.79%. Through this entire fortnight, reported earnings have moved nothing. Cash dividends are a different instrument. If the first few proposals draw a price response, that is the first evidence in two weeks that fundamentals can move this tape.