NEPSE Rebounds as 181 Stocks Rise Yet Turnover Hits a New Low

Markets Today

NEPSE closed at 2,522.66, up 9.24 points (+0.36%), snapping a run that had taken the index down 87.78 points across the previous four sessions.

Breadth was the strongest of this entire coverage period: 181 advanced against 84 declined, 17 unchanged, 341 scripts traded. An A/D ratio of 2.15 more than double the previous best (1.66 on 13 August), and a violent reversal from Monday's record-low 0.08.

Twelve of thirteen sectors closed green. The single exception was Manufacturing & Processing at ‑1.00%, which had been the only green sector on Monday. A complete inversion in one session.

And the flood names finally bid. RHPL rose +1.69% to 168.70 and CHCL rose +2.62% to 372.00, the first green closes for either since the Bhotekoshi flood on 26 August. MKJC, which closed limit-down at ‑14.98% on Monday, rose 3.11%. MANDU +3.61%, SJCL +3.81%, MMKJL +7.15%. Hydropower led all sectors at +1.01%.

Non-Life Insurance, the worst sector for three consecutive sessions and down roughly 10.6% across them, closed +0.87%.

But read the candle against the volume

This is the fifth session in this coverage where breadth flipped decisively positive. The previous four: 13, 20, 27 August and today each followed the same shape: a violent oversold bounce with strong breadth, immediately reversed. 1.66 became 0.67. 1.01 became 0.36. 1.24 became 0.08.

What makes today's bounce weaker than any of those, not stronger, is the money behind it:

• Turnover Rs 2.91 arab, the lowest of this entire coverage period, down 20.3% from Monday and below the prior floor of Rs 3.24 arab

• Volume 76.14 lakh units also the lowest of the coverage, down 18.3%

• Transactions fell 29.1% to 48,341 from Monday's record 68,137

• Average block deal size Rs 59,442, the second-lowest recorded

• Largest single block: SOHL at Rs 76.06 lakh, the second consecutive session with no block above Rs 1 crore

The index recovered only 21% of Monday's 43.89-point loss on the smallest turnover of the coverage. Sellers stepped away; buyers did not arrive in size. That is a relief bounce on an empty tape, not accumulation.

Index Snapshot

Turnover Rs 2.91 arab (‑20.3% DoD, lowest of coverage)
Volume 76.14 lakh units (lowest of coverage)
Transactions 48,341 (‑29.1%)
Scripts traded 341
Advancers 181
Decliners 84
Unchanged 17

Sectoral Indices Performance

Hydropower at +1.01% is the sector's first meaningful gain since 20 August, after falling 8.4% across four sessions. Nearly the entire heatmap is green: AKJCL +1.69%, SOHL +1.70%, API +1.06%, RIDI +2.42%, TAMOR +3.13%, NHPC +1.53%, SAHAS +2.10%, SJCL +3.81%, MKJC +3.11%, SSHL +1.81%, PHCL +1.71%, GHL +1.36%. Only MEHL (‑2.51%) and a handful of small names closed lower.

Manufacturing & Processing was the only red sector, and the reversal is sharp: GCIL ‑5.53% after +7.57% Monday and +8.19% Thursday, PCIL ‑3.53% after +4.03%, SYPNL ‑2.54% after +3.91%, SONA ‑2.37% after +2.18%, SHIVM ‑1.51% after +2.15%, SAPIL ‑1.80% for a second consecutive decline.

Thursday's report called the Manufacturing rotation "the first broad sector move of this coverage." Monday's noted it had held two consecutive sessions and asked whether it would survive a third. It did not. Every one of the six names that carried the sector on Monday closed lower today.

That makes it the thirteenth failed rotation of this coverage. Nothing on this exchange has held a directional move for three consecutive sessions since before 7 August now across eighteen sessions with no exception.

Non-Life Insurance at +0.87% is the first green close in four sessions. NLG +2.17%, PRIN +2.04%, NICL +1.87%, SGIC +1.32%, IGI +1.04%, UAIL +1.00%, NIL +1.14%. Only HEI (‑1.31%) fell. But the sector is still down roughly 9.8% from 25 August, and no flood claims estimate has been published.

Market Breadth

A/D ratio 2.15 — the highest of this coverage period by a wide margin.

The full series: 0.32 → 0.51 → 0.99 → 0.70 → 1.66 → 0.67 → 0.35 → 0.32 → 0.79 → 1.01 → 0.36 → 0.21 → 0.42 → 0.09 → 1.24 → 0.08 → 2.15.

Eighteen sessions. Four readings above parity before today, every one reversed within a single session. The last two swings have been extraordinary: 0.09 → 1.24 → 0.08 → 2.15. The market is oscillating between near-total selling and near-total buying on alternating days, which is characteristic of a thin, unanchored tape rather than a trending one.

Technical scan as of 2:58 PM, two minutes before the close: 3,161 signals, 600 bullish (18.98%) against 1,250 bearish (39.54%).

Bullish share at 18.98% is a new record low, and the first sub-19% reading of the entire coverage. It has now fallen on five consecutive sessions: 21.41% → 20.27% → 19.71% → 20.09% → 18.98%. Bearish share ticked up to 39.54%. The gap is 20.6 points.

So on the day breadth registered its strongest reading ever recorded here, the proportion of stocks showing bullish technical setups fell to its weakest. That divergence has now appeared three times in this coverage on 27 August (breadth 1.24, bullish 19.71%) and 20 August (breadth 1.01, bullish 21.86%) and on both prior occasions the scan was right and the price was wrong within one session.

Total signals at 3,161 remain near the coverage low, consistent with the collapsed turnover.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

Eight of the ten are hydropower, and most are flood-damaged names bouncing off deeply oversold levels. MMKJL fell 8.00% on Thursday and 11.56% on 26 August; MKJC was limit-down twice in four sessions; MANDU fell 9.30% Monday. These are dead-cat mechanics, not a re-rating, none of the underlying disclosures have changed.

ENL rose 4.85% for a second consecutive session (+2.62% Monday) and HATHY +2.90% after four straight declines. Investment closed +0.61%.

The board topped out at +7.15%, and only four names gained more than 3.7%, a narrow winning range for a session with 181 advancers. The breadth was wide but shallow: a great many stocks up a little.

Top Losers

ULBSL completed a two-session round trip. It rose 13.16% on Monday as the day's best performer — one of only 21 green stocks on the entire exchange and fell 8.48% today.

GCIL is the sharpest reversal. Up 8.19% Thursday and 7.57% Monday (+16.4% across two sessions, and specifically flagged in Monday's report as one of the very few names holding a multi-session gain), it fell 5.53% today. The two-day gain is more than half gone.

Four of the ten worst are Microfinance: ULBSL, CYCL, WNLB, GLBSL even though the sector index closed +0.05%. That internal dispersion has been a recurring feature of Microfinance throughout this coverage.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Most active by volume: AKJCL (342.60, +1.69%), RHPL (168.70, +1.69%), RIDI (347.70, +2.42%), SOHL (659.00, +1.70%), SHIVM (654.00, ‑1.51%), CHCL (372.00, +2.62%), TAMOR (495.00, +3.13%), NHPC (251.80, +1.53%), SANIMA (358.00, ‑0.28%), KBL (211.00, 0.00%).

Six of the ten turnover leaders closed green, and eight of ten by volume: the money went into hydro, and hydro paid. That is the correct configuration for a bounce. The problem is the absolute size: Rs 2.91 arab is the smallest daily total of this coverage.

RIDI finally broke its downtrend. After fourteen declines in seventeen sessions: 386.00 down to 339.50, it rose 2.42% to 347.70 on heavy volume. Two green closes in three sessions.

RHPL rose 1.69% to 168.70, its first gain since the flood, but it remains down 44.6% from 241.40 pre-flood. Generation is still suspended at the 111 MW Rasuwagadhi project with no restoration timeline published.

Bulk/block activity as of 2:59 PM, one minute before the close: Rs 2.59 arab across 43,558 blocks, average deal size Rs 59,442. Largest single block: SOHL at Rs 76.06 lakh, 11:17:22 AM. Top five totalled just Rs 3.18 crore: SOHL three times (Rs 76.06 L, Rs 63.45 L, Rs 61.22 L), TAMOR (Rs 61.68 L) and FMDBL (Rs 55.88 L). Top five by quantity: SFEF (63,000 / 40,400 / 25,000), SIGS3 (47,330), CSY (28,631).

This is the second consecutive session with no block above Rs 1 crore. Monday's largest was Rs 95.30 lakh; today's is Rs 76.06 lakh. For context, this coverage has seen ADBLB87 place roughly Rs 142 crore in Rs 10.1 crore tranches, RSML take Rs 31.53 crore in one session, and SBI print four identical Rs 4.03 crore blocks.

Large accounts have now been absent for two full sessions. Monday's report flagged that the first block above Rs 2 crore would be the earliest credible sign that size is willing to price this market again. It has not appeared. On the day breadth hit 2.15, the biggest ticket anyone wrote was Rs 76 lakh and three of the top five were the same stock.

Previous Session Recap: Monday, 31 August

NEPSE fell 43.89 points (‑1.71%) to 2,513.42, the largest decline of this coverage with breadth at a record-low 0.08 (21 up, 253 down). ICRA Nepal placed Myagdi Hydropower on negative watch and cut its issuer rating to B@, explicitly flagging high default risk, after a landslide buried the 14 MW Ghaar Khola powerhouse. Hydropower fell 2.94%, Non-Life Insurance 5.03% for a third straight session as worst sector. RHPL fell 11.76%, CHCL 10.49%, MKJC limit-down. SAPIL ended an eleven-session, +304% limit-up run at ‑8.52%. Transactions hit a record 68,137 on a record-small average ticket of Rs 53,605, and the largest block was Rs 95.30 lakh.

Coverage context: the eighteen sessions from 7 August to 1 September: 2,650.08 → 2,641.06 → 2,641.85 → 2,642.40 → 2,651.21 → 2,643.83 → 2,641.82 → 2,622.48 → 2,622.22 → 2,629.40 → 2,618.72 → 2,599.58 → 2,594.27 → 2,558.35 → 2,557.31 → 2,513.42 → 2,522.66. Net ‑127.42 points, ‑4.81%.

Top Stories in Nepal

The first promoter sale under SEBON's new disclosure rule

Sudip Ghimire, a major shareholder of Upper Hewakhola Hydropower (UHEWA), has submitted notice to NEPSE of an intention to sell 452,533 shares over the next three months.

This is the first disclosure of its kind since SEBON's 26 August directive requiring promoters and major shareholders holding 5% or more to notify the company 15 days before selling, with the company disclosing via NEPSE.

The size is material: 452,533 shares against UHEWA's 57.5 lakh listed shares is roughly 7.9% of the company. UHEWA's promoter lock-in expired on Ashadh 31, 2082 (July 2025), so these are freely tradeable.

This report has flagged repeatedly through August that lock-in expiries and promoter sales were arriving into the market unpriced, BJHL's Shrawan 26 mutual fund release, RNLI's Shrawan 30 promoter and employee expiry and that the SEBON rule was "the most consequential structural change in the package for day-to-day trading." Here is the first working example. The supply is now visible in advance rather than appearing on the tape unannounced.

UHEWA closed +0.68% today.

Also disclosed

• Shikhar Power Development: 1.11 lakh units exit lock-in on Ashwin 2. More visible forward supply, disclosed under the same framework.

• ICRA Nepal has kept Bottlers Nepal (Terai) on "Watch with Negative Implications." The second consecutive session with an ICRA action on a listed name, after Monday's MHL downgrade to B@ and the removal of Bhat-Bhateni from negative watch. The rating agency is now actively repricing credit across the listed universe and it is doing so in both directions.

• ICFC Finance has proposed a 10.5263% cash dividend for FY2082/83. Dividend season continues after NIFRA's 5.2632% (Rs 1.1369 billion), MNMF1's 2.20%, Kamana Sewa's 15%, Super Madi's 15.79% and Sunrise Focused Equity Fund's 4.5%. ICFC closed +0.95%; Finance rose 0.25%.

Carrying over

• Myagdi Hydropower remains on ICRA negative watch at B@ with Rs 2.315 billion of long-term loan limits under review, 14 MW Ghaar Khola shut since 11 August, force majeure filed with NEA, insurance claim open and a NPR 475 million IPO in question.

• Rasuwagadhi's 111 MW project remains offline with no restoration timeline. The Rasuwagadhi–Kerung border crossing is destroyed and cargo continues diverting to Korala in Mustang, where customs operates with 12 of 18 sanctioned staff.

• Himalayan Reinsurance's Rs 2.33 billion FY2082/83 loss with catastrophe reserve depleted to Rs 144.4 million remains the unresolved overhang on Non-Life Insurance, which bounced 0.87% today but is still down roughly 9.8% since 25 August.

• Margin lending stands at Rs 166.50 billion against share collateral, 72% of it in accounts above Rs 1 crore against an index down 4.81% across this coverage.

Corporate Actions & Events

What to Watch

The bounce has the right shape and the wrong size. Breadth 2.15, twelve of thirteen sectors green, flood names bidding for the first time, hydro leading every qualitative box is ticked. But it happened on the lowest turnover and the lowest volume of this entire coverage period, recovering only 21% of Monday's loss. Four previous above-parity breadth readings in this coverage were all reversed within one session, and none of them had this little money behind them. The test is Wednesday: a second consecutive close above 2,522 on turnover above Rs 3.5 arab would be the first genuine two-day advance in eighteen sessions. Anything less and this is the fifth failed bounce.

Manufacturing failed on day three, exactly as the pattern predicted. GCIL ‑5.53% after +16.4% across two days, PCIL ‑3.53%, SYPNL ‑2.54%, SONA ‑2.37%, SHIVM ‑1.51%. Every name that carried the only working rotation of this coverage reversed together. Eighteen sessions, thirteen failed rotations, zero survivors. Until something holds three days, treat strength as an exit rather than an entry.

Bullish technical signals broke below 19% for the first time. 18.98%, a fifth consecutive decline, on the day breadth hit its coverage high. This exact divergence appeared on 20 and 27 August and the scan won both times within a session. It is the single most consistent leading indicator in this dataset, and it is at its most negative reading ever recorded here.

No block above Rs 1 crore for two consecutive sessions. Largest today Rs 76.06 lakh, and three of the top five were the same stock. Institutional participation has not resumed. The marker to watch remains a single block above Rs 2 crore until one prints, this market is being cleared entirely by retail tickets averaging under Rs 60,000.

The UHEWA disclosure changes the information environment. 452,533 shares about 7.9% of the company now flagged three months in advance under SEBON's new rule, alongside Shikhar Power's Ashwin 2 lock-in release. For the first time in this coverage, forward supply is visible before it hits. Watch how UHEWA trades over the notice period: it is the first data point on whether pre-disclosure dampens the price impact or simply front-loads it.

Flood names bounced but nothing was resolved. RHPL +1.69% is still 44.6% below its pre-flood level with generation suspended and no restoration timeline. CHCL +2.62% is still down about 26% across four sessions. No insurance claim estimates, no repair costs, no restart dates have been published for any affected project. MHL sits on a B@ rating with default risk flagged. The bounce is positioning, not new information.