Markets Today

The 30-Second Read

• NEPSE closed 2,559.49, up 27.94 (+1.10%), the largest single-day gain of the coverage beating Monday's +18.07. Both broken supports reclaimed; the index sits 1.35 points below the 7 September reform high.

• A/D 7.65. That is not a typo. 237 advancers, 31 decliners, the record was 2.57. Advancer count 237 against a prior best of 195; decliner count 31 is the lowest recorded here.

• Turnover Rs 4.36 arab, second-highest of the coverage. Fourth consecutive heavy session Rs 16.39 arab across four days.

• But the block tape emptied out. Top five blocks totalled Rs 5.32 crore against Rs 15.25 crore yesterday and the largest print was NCCD86 at Rs 1.51 crore, a debenture. The largest equity block was SANIMA at Rs 1.02 crore. First session below Rs 2 crore since 3 September.

• SINDU rose 9.54% after three consecutive limit-downs. LEC held day two at +2.48% on Rs 36.67 crore still top of both activity tables.

• The technical scan jumped to 24.74% bullish, the highest since 9 August.

The strongest breadth reading in twenty-four sessions arrived with no institutional footprint behind it.

NEPSE closed 2,559.49, up 27.94 points (+1.10%) on Rs 4.36 arab, 1.21 crore units and 49,006 transactions across 345 scrips. Advancers 237, decliners 31, unchanged 14 an A/D of 7.65.

Put that in context. The previous best in this dataset was 2.57 on 2 September. Today is three times that. Only 31 of 282 quoted names fell 11% of the board. The index reclaimed 2,542.77 and 2,550 both of which broke this week and closed 1.35 points under the 7 September high of 2,560.84.

Every captured sector was green, led by Hydropower +1.83%, Non-Life +1.72% and Investment +1.58%. The loser table is shallow: worst name down 5.71% only two beyond −4% and six of the ten are microfinance.

The composition flipped back to small caps. Sensitive rose 0.88% against NEPSE's 1.10% large caps lagged, reversing Monday's pattern. Whatever bought today was not buying the blue chips.

And here is the caveat that matters. The block tape which has carried Rs 11–16 crore in the top five for a week, collapsed to Rs 5.32 crore. The largest print of the day was NCCD86 at Rs 1.51 crore a debenture, not equity. HBLD86 (another debenture) and HIDCLP (a promoter share) take two more of the top five slots. The largest genuine equity block was SANIMA at Rs 1.02 crore.

So: record breadth, near-record turnover and the smallest institutional block flow in more than a week. Rs 4.36 arab of turnover moved through ordinary-sized orders. This was a broad retail bid not size stepping in.

Yesterday's call needs correcting. This report said Rs 4.00 arab on a −0.54% day confirmed distribution. The same turnover level reversed direction completely in one session with breadth at 7.65. Heavy turnover was telling us the market was active not which way it was going. "Distribution confirmed" was premature and is withdrawn. What survives is the narrower point: large tickets and blocks accompanied the selling; they are absent from the buying.

Index Snapshot

Turnover Rs 4.36 arab

Volume 1.21 crore units

Transactions 49,006

Scrips traded 345

Sectoral Indices Performance

Eleven captured, all green the mirror of the previous two all-red sessions. Float (175.70) is a broad index, not a sub-index.

Hydropower leading at +1.83% is the third distinct sector to lead in five sessions, Non-Life on 7 September, Manufacturing on the way down, Hydro today. Rotation is still rotating.

Market Breadth

Running A/D series (last ten sessions): 0.42 → 0.09 → 1.24 → 0.08 → 2.15 → 2.57 → 1.18 → 2.47 → 0.39 → 0.34 → 7.65

New record by a factor of three. Three sessions ago the market printed 0.34 with 200 decliners; today it printed 7.65 with 31. That is a 6.5-point swing in the ratio inside three sessions, which says far more about instability than about direction.

The honest reading: readings this extreme are exhaustion signals as often as they are breakouts. Every above-parity streak in this coverage has topped out and reverted, and the only four-session streak (2.15 → 2.57 → 1.18 → 2.47) ended in a two-day slide that erased it. What matters is not 7.65; it is whether Sunday prints above 1.00 at all.

Technical scan

3,262 signals: 807 bullish (24.74%), 1,189 bearish (36.45%) at 2:58 PM.

Bullish %: 18.98 → 19.62 → 21.44 → 23.70 → 23.71 → 22.71 → 24.74

Highest since 9 August, and up 5.76 points from the 1 September record low. Bearish signals fell to 36.45%, a coverage low. The scan was demoted from lead-call status yesterday after failing two divergences; it is now confirming rather than diverging which is the condition in which it has been reliable. Bearish still outnumber bullish 1.47 to 1, the base is repairing, not repaired.

Winners & Losers

Top Gainers

SINDU +9.54% ends three consecutive limit-downs that took it from 585.50 to 359.70 (−38.6%). A 9.54% bounce recovers a fraction of that.

SSHL is the standout on quality. +4.92% yesterday, +5.94% today and it appears in both activity tables, 5.93 lakh shares, Rs 12.41 crore. That is a volume-backed two-day move which almost nothing in this coverage has managed.

HATHY +5.56% prices Thursday's Rs 40 crore sugar-mill and hydropower commitment one session late. Worth logging: capital-allocation news has been 0-for-6 in this market and this is the first item to work with a one-day lag.

ULBSL is back at +10.53%, the thin print this report flagged three times which fell 12.04% two sessions ago. It appears in neither activity table again.

Top Losers

Only 31 names fell in the whole market, and seven of these ten fell less than 1.6%. There was effectively no selling today outside two names.

ENL resumed falling, −4.21%, giving back most of yesterday's +5.46% bounce. With 913,099 shares disclosed for sale across seven holders over three months, the overhang is doing what overhangs do capping every bounce.

UMHL −1.39% the session after its bonus shares listed. New supply, immediate effect.

Turnover & Volume Leaders

Most Active by Turnover

Most Active by Volume

LEC (14.34 L), SSHL (5.93 L), HDHPC (2.92 L, +4.29%), NHPC (2.91 L), BHL (2.57 L, +3.27%), RIDI (2.53 L), AKJCL (2.40 L), SANIMA (2.38 L), API (2.30 L, +2.67%)

LEC held day two. Rs 36.67 crore against yesterday's Rs 45.49 crore, volume 14.34 lakh against 19.27 lakh, price +2.48% after a limit-up. Still top of both tables, still 8.4% of all turnover. Deceleration in both size and price, which is what a move that is being distributed into looks like but it did not reverse and sixteen of seventeen rotations have died on day three.

Seven of the nine turnover leaders are hydropower consistent with the sector leading at +1.83%.

Block tape

Panel timestamped 2:59 PM, pre-close snapshot.

Top 5 by amount: NCCD86 Rs 1.51 Cr, SANIMA Rs 1.02 Cr, NBL Rs 97.88 L, HIDCLP Rs 91.45 L, HBLD86 Rs 89.85 L. Combined Rs 5.32 crore.

Top 5 by quantity: NIBLSTF 1,28,620, NIBLGF 97,600, NIBLGF 50,000, NIBLGF 50,000, HIDCLP 50,000.

Three of the top five are not ordinary equity. NCCD86 and HBLD86 are debentures; HIDCLP is a promoter share. Stripping those leaves SANIMA (Rs 1.02 Cr) and NBL (Rs 97.88 L) as the only real equity blocks in the market, a combined Rs 2.00 crore or 0.5% of turnover.

Largest-block series: SAHAS Rs 4.95 Cr → RSML Rs 8.10 Cr → RSML Rs 5.87 Cr → RSML Rs 5.88 Cr → SBI Rs 4.01 Cr ×3 → NCCD86 Rs 1.51 Cr.

This is the cleanest read available today: the buyers who took the market up 27.94 points did not use the block window. Average deal size stayed high at Rs 89,250 only because overall ticket sizes are elevated, not because large placements occurred. Institutional size showed up for the SBI distribution and the RSML accumulation; it did not show up for this rally.

Mutual fund units (NIBLSTF, NIBLGF ×3) again head the quantity list. Use turnover, not volume.

Signal Scorecard

Top Stories

1. Wagle on NRB independence

Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle publicly assured that the government has not interfered with Nepal Rastra Bank's autonomy. Ministers do not usually volunteer this.

Why it matters: Wagle convened NRB and SEBON on capital market reform on 7 September, which produced the coverage's only macro-driven index move. NRB is simultaneously withdrawing Rs 85 billion from BFIs, carries an unresolved question on flood-affected loan classification, and supervises a Rs 166.50 billion margin-lending book. A public statement on central bank independence in that context reads as a response to pressure rather than an unprompted remark. It removes a tail risk if taken at face value but it also tells you the question was being asked.

2. PM meets business leaders; the political calendar keeps moving

PM Balendra Shah held talks with top business leaders on investment, days after the cabinet approved his UN General Assembly trip and a new Industry Minister was recommended. Rajesh Upadhyay has been appointed acting president of CBFIN, the banking and financial institutions confederation.

Why it matters: Monday's rally required legislative follow-through on the SEBON reform package, a draft Securities Act amendment, a QII framework, a timeline. None has appeared. A prime minister travelling, a cabinet in transition and an acting head at the banking confederation is not a configuration that moves bills quickly. The reform trade remains a sentiment trade until text exists.

3. Climate-resilient hydropower plan and Hydropower led at +1.83%

An integrated plan to make hydropower and infrastructure climate-resilient was reported the same day the sector led the market.

Why it matters: this is the policy response to the arithmetic this report has been carrying roughly NPR 560 billion ($4 billion) of reconstruction cost, NPR 180 billion of hydro damage, NPR 25.87 billion of claims filed and a Gen-Z settlement precedent of 32.4%. Resilience standards raise capital costs for new projects and may eventually lower insurance costs for compliant ones. Neither effect is near-term. The sector's +1.83% today is a bounce in a market where everything bounced, not a repricing. Still no restoration timeline for RHPL, CHCL or the 220 kV Trishuli-3 'B' substation.

4. Corporate flow

Machhapuchchhre Bank (MBL) proposed a 6% dividend and closed +0.80%, the weakest dividend reaction of the coverage and consistent with the pattern that size and cash content drive the response. Shiva Shree Hydropower appointed Citizens Capital as share registrar. Flood relief contributions continued from MV Dugar Group (Rs 1.11 crore) and the Mobile Phone Importers Association (Rs 31 lakh).

Corporate Actions & Events

What to Watch

1. 2,560.84 is 1.35 points away. Clear it and the market is at a new high for the recovery with open space to 2,594.27. Fail there and the 7 September level becomes a double top, the more dangerous outcome because it would mean the reform high held twice on a market that just produced its best breadth reading ever.

2. Does A/D print above 1.00 on Sunday? 7.65 is an exhaustion-grade reading. Every above-parity streak in this coverage has reverted, and the record four-session run ended in a slide that erased it. The number to watch is not the ratio but the decliner count, 31 is unsustainably low and a return toward 100 with the index still rising would be a healthier signal than a repeat of today.

3. Do the blocks come back? Equity block flow was Rs 2.00 crore, 0.5% of turnover, the thinnest of the coverage. Institutional size appeared for the SBI distribution and the RSML accumulation and stayed away from this rally. If Sunday brings another Rs 4 arab session with no blocks, this is a retail move and should be sized as one.

4. LEC on day three. Two sessions, Rs 82.16 crore of combined turnover, decelerating from +15.00% to +2.48%. Sixteen of seventeen rotations have died on day three. SSHL is the second candidate, and the better one, volume-backed in both tables on both days.

5. ENL's overhang against every bounce. −4.21% today giving back a +5.46% rally with 913,099 shares still to come over three months. Also watch for an eighth filing, the count went six to seven in two days.

6. Reform text, or the absence of it. Wagle's NRB-autonomy statement and the PM's business meeting are atmospherics. The market needs a draft amendment, a QII consultation, or a timeline. Four sessions have passed since the announcement with nothing published.